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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 2.3 wins, so it did -5.4 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-5.4 pts
Called / graded
2/5
Expected from price
2.3
Flagged volume
$411.1k
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±20.0 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$50k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 2 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Nuggets vs. Spurs at 19¢) and the edge is -26.9 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
100% vs 19% · n=1
20–40¢
0% vs 26% · n=1
40–60¢
0% vs 41% · n=1
60–80¢
50% vs 70% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$237.8k
Last 30 days +$10.6k · $30.12M volume · 16,114 trades · since Dec 17, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$237.9k
Open P&L · 1 positions
−$19
Closed-position win rate
68%
286 closed
Wallet age · markets
311d
262 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 5 | 2 | 2.3 | -5.4 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Celtics vs. 76ers | MED BUY 76ers @ 64¢ | $35.0k | missed |
| Spurs vs. Trail Blazers | MED BUY Spurs @ 66¢ | $104.9k 3.5× usual |
excluded |
| Spurs vs. Trail Blazers | MED BUY Trail Blazers @ 41¢ | $55.7k | missed |
| Nuggets vs. Spurs | MED BUY Nuggets @ 19¢ | $35.4k | called |
| Celtics vs. Bucks | LOW SELL Bucks @ 43¢ | $11.6k | excluded |
| Celtics vs. Bucks | LOW BUY Bucks @ 44¢ | $30.4k | missed |
| Celtics vs. Bucks | LOW BUY Bucks @ 27¢ | $12.9k | missed |
| Nuggets vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Nuggets @ 26¢ | $15.6k | missed |
| Thunder vs. Pistons | LOW SELL Pistons @ 78¢ | $12.4k | missed |
| Thunder vs. Pistons | LOW BUY Pistons @ 74¢ | $11.5k | called |
| Bulls vs. Heat | LOW BUY Bulls @ 34¢ | $19.5k | missed |
| Bulls vs. Heat | LOW BUY Heat @ 62¢ | $33.6k | called |
| Nets vs. Clippers | LOW BUY Clippers @ 76¢ | $32.6k | called |
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