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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did -45.1 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-45.1 pts
Called / graded
0/2
Expected from price
0.9
Flagged volume
$2.39M
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±35.2 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$626.4k
Last 30 days +$0 · $45.78M volume · 720 trades · since Apr 02, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$7.71M
Open P&L · 69 positions
−$8.33M
Closed-position win rate
88%
66 closed
Wallet age · markets
205d
135 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 2 | 0 | 0.9 | -45.1 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Lakers vs. Rockets | LOW SELL Rockets @ 99.9¢ | $126.0k | excluded |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | LOW BUY Rockets @ 61¢ | $76.3k | excluded |
 Athletics vs. Texas Rangers | LOW BUY Athletics @ 50¢ | $41.6k | excluded |
| Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City Royals | MED BUY Los Angeles Angels @ 45¢ | $87.0k | excluded |
| Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City Royals | HIGH BUY Los Angeles Angels @ 45¢ | $251.9k 2.3× usual |
excluded |
| Athletics vs. Texas Rangers | MED BUY Athletics @ 49¢ | $116.3k | excluded |
| Athletics vs. Texas Rangers | MED BUY Athletics @ 47¢ | $190.9k | missed |
| Warriors vs. Suns | LOW BUY Warriors @ 45¢ | $38.7k | excluded |
| Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians | MED SELL Baltimore Orioles @ 99.9¢ | $399.9k 3.7× usual |
excluded |
| Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians | MED BUY Baltimore Orioles @ 42¢ | $164.1k | excluded |
| Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego Padres | MED BUY Seattle Mariners @ 53¢ | $97.2k | excluded |
| Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals | LOW SELL Chicago White Sox @ 99.9¢ | $228.3k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals | MED BUY Chicago White Sox @ 42¢ | $92.7k | excluded |
 Counter-Strike: MIBR vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage | MED BUY EYEBALLERS @ 43¢ | $87.9k | missed |
| Rockets vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5 | MED SELL Over @ 99.9¢ | $293.6k 2.7× usual |
excluded |
| Rockets vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5 | MED BUY Over @ 53¢ | $99.2k | called |
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