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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 1.5 wins, so it did -17.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-17.5 pts
Called / graded
1/3
Expected from price
1.5
Flagged volume
$129.9k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±25.9 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$174.2k
Last 30 days +$0 · $9.03M volume · 2,905 trades · since Jun 05, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$315.5k
Open P&L · 8 positions
−$134.5k
Closed-position win rate
62%
53 closed
Wallet age · markets
871d
56 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.7 | +31.2 pts |
| Sports | 2 | 0 | 0.8 | -41.8 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL No @ 97¢ | $14.6k | excluded |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 96.5¢ | $14.5k | called |
 Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 20¢ | $30.0k | missed |
 Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | LOW BUY Yes @ 64¢ | $46.3k | missed |
 US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 69¢ | $24.5k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x156925…