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+$5,434No · avg 79¢ → 97.5¢ · $28.9k+$560No · avg 92¢ → 97.8¢ · $9,554+$828No · avg 84¢ → 96¢ · $6,489+$235No · avg 81¢ → 94.5¢ · $1,588
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 5 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 4.0 wins, so it did +19.1 pts better than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +15.4 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+19.1 pts
Called / graded
5/5
Expected from price
4.0
Flagged volume
$346.8k
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±17.1 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$59k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 5 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? at 66¢) and the edge is +15.4 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
60–80¢
100% vs 70% · n=2
80–100¢
100% vs 88% · n=3
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$99.7k
Last 30 days +$401 · $866.4k volume · 102 trades · since Oct 06, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$101.0k
Open P&L · 8 positions
−$2,732
Closed-position win rate
100%
13 closed
Wallet age · markets
383d
21 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 5 | 5 | 4.0 | +19.1 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | LOW BUY No @ 74¢ | $30.0k | called |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | LOW BUY No @ 66¢ | $13.9k | called |
 Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 97.2¢ | $18.4k | excluded |
 Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | MED BUY Yes @ 88¢ | $45.6k | called |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 89¢ | $16.0k | called |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | MED BUY Yes @ 87¢ | $223.0k 9.2× usual |
called |
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