Weekly report card
Week 2026-16
Apr 13, 00:00 EDT – Apr 19, 23:59 EDT · markets that resolved this week
Price-adjusted edge
-15.5 pts
Called
61/151
Expected from price
84.4
Std. error
±3.5
In week 2026-16, 151 graded flags resolved. The flagged side won 61 times; entry prices implied 84.4. Whales did no better than the price (-15.5 pts). One week is a small sample.
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 113 | 37 | 61.2 | -21.4 pts |
| Other | 38 | 24 | 23.2 | +2.0 pts |
Best calls (lowest implied odds that won)
Biggest misses
Every graded flag
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Trail Blazers vs. Spurs | HIGH BUY Spurs @ 86¢ | $1.05M 25.1× usual |
called |
| Magic vs. Pistons | HIGH BUY Pistons @ 78¢ | $868.3k 24.8× usual |
missed |
| Warriors vs. Clippers | HIGH BUY Clippers @ 68¢ | $498.1k | missed |
| Warriors vs. Suns | HIGH BUY Suns @ 59¢ | $487.7k 11.7× usual |
called |
| Magic vs. Pistons | HIGH BUY Pistons @ 80¢ | $305.9k 8.7× usual |
missed |
| Hornets vs. Magic | HIGH BUY Hornets @ 58¢ | $293.2k 5.0× usual |
missed |
| Hornets vs. Magic | MED BUY Hornets @ 61¢ | $190.6k 2.8× usual |
missed |
 Capitals vs. Blue Jackets | HIGH BUY Blue Jackets @ 54¢ | $144.4k 2.3× usual |
missed |
| Hornets vs. Magic | MED BUY Hornets @ 58¢ | $125.9k | missed |
 Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-18? | MED BUY Yes @ 47¢ | $124.4k | missed |
 Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? | MED BUY No @ 62¢ | $117.2k | missed |
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14? | MED BUY Yes @ 41¢ | $106.1k | missed |
 Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | MED BUY No @ 95¢ | $104.1k 4.9× usual |
missed |
| Magic vs. Pistons | LOW BUY Pistons @ 79¢ | $98.8k 2.8× usual |
missed |
 Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | LOW BUY No @ 94¢ | $94.0k 5.1× usual |
called |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? | MED BUY Yes @ 37¢ | $77.9k | called |
| Spread: Spurs (-11.5) | MED BUY Spurs @ 51¢ | $69.0k | called |
| Capitals vs. Blue Jackets | MED BUY Blue Jackets @ 58¢ | $62.0k | missed |
| Capitals vs. Blue Jackets | MED BUY Capitals @ 42¢ | $62.0k | called |
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14? | LOW BUY Yes @ 42¢ | $60.8k | missed |
| Hornets vs. Magic | MED BUY Magic @ 41¢ | $59.3k | called |
 Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | MED BUY No @ 94.1¢ | $57.1k 2.6× usual |
called |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | MED BUY No @ 93.5¢ | $55.2k 2.6× usual |
missed |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | MED BUY No @ 92.8¢ | $54.1k 2.5× usual |
called |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | HIGH SELL No @ 96.5¢ | $53.3k | missed |
| Hornets vs. Magic | LOW BUY Magic @ 41¢ | $53.0k | called |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | MED SELL No @ 96.2¢ | $52.0k | missed |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | LOW BUY No @ 95¢ | $51.3k 2.4× usual |
missed |
| Trail Blazers vs. Suns | MED BUY Trail Blazers @ 41¢ | $48.8k | called |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? | LOW BUY No @ 63¢ | $46.2k | missed |
| Magic vs. 76ers | MED BUY Magic @ 47¢ | $45.5k | missed |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | MED BUY No @ 90.7¢ | $45.3k 2.4× usual |
called |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | MED SELL Yes @ 73¢ | $44.8k | missed |
| Hornets vs. Magic | LOW BUY Hornets @ 58¢ | $44.4k | missed |
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14? | LOW BUY Yes @ 41¢ | $43.5k | missed |
| Heat vs. Hornets | MED BUY Heat @ 30¢ | $43.1k | missed |
| Spread: Spurs (-11.5) | LOW BUY Trail Blazers @ 49¢ | $42.6k 2.1× usual |
missed |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? | LOW BUY No @ 61¢ | $40.7k | missed |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | MED SELL No @ 85¢ | $38.0k | missed |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? | LOW BUY No @ 64¢ | $37.6k | missed |
| Trail Blazers vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 82¢ | $37.4k | called |
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14? | MED BUY Yes @ 41¢ | $36.8k | missed |
| Magic vs. 76ers | LOW BUY Magic @ 48¢ | $36.6k | missed |
| Magic vs. Pistons | LOW BUY Pistons @ 78¢ | $35.9k | missed |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | LOW BUY No @ 89¢ | $35.5k | called |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? | MED BUY No @ 63¢ | $34.9k | missed |
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14? | LOW BUY No @ 59¢ | $34.5k | called |
| Warriors vs. Suns | LOW BUY Warriors @ 42¢ | $32.4k | missed |
| Hornets vs. Magic | LOW BUY Magic @ 42¢ | $32.4k | called |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | LOW BUY No @ 87¢ | $32.1k | missed |
| Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-18? | LOW BUY No @ 53¢ | $31.9k 2.3× usual |
called |
| Magic vs. Pistons | MED BUY Magic @ 21¢ | $31.5k | called |
| Rockets vs. Lakers | LOW BUY Rockets @ 66¢ | $29.7k | missed |
| Heat vs. Hornets | MED BUY Heat @ 31¢ | $29.7k | missed |
| Warriors vs. Clippers | MED BUY Warriors @ 33¢ | $28.5k | called |
| Warriors vs. Suns | LOW BUY Warriors @ 42¢ | $28.4k | missed |
| Warriors vs. Suns | MED BUY Warriors @ 42¢ | $28.4k | missed |
| Hawks vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Knicks @ 68¢ | $28.2k | called |
| Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-18? | LOW BUY Yes @ 47¢ | $28.1k | missed |
| Warriors vs. Clippers | LOW BUY Clippers @ 68¢ | $28.0k | missed |
| Magic vs. 76ers | LOW BUY Magic @ 48¢ | $27.9k | missed |
 Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 93.9¢ | $26.3k | called |
| Heat vs. Hornets | MED BUY Heat @ 33¢ | $26.2k | missed |
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14? | LOW BUY No @ 59¢ | $26.1k | called |
 Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | LOW BUY No @ 92¢ | $25.1k | called |
| Trail Blazers vs. Spurs | MED BUY Spurs @ 84¢ | $25.1k | called |
| Hornets vs. Magic | LOW BUY Magic @ 41¢ | $23.7k | called |
| Heat vs. Hornets | LOW SELL Heat @ 30¢ | $22.4k | called |
| Trail Blazers vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 84¢ | $22.1k | called |
| Hurricanes vs. Islanders | LOW BUY Islanders @ 55¢ | $21.6k | missed |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | LOW BUY No @ 93.1¢ | $21.3k | missed |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | LOW BUY Yes @ 16¢ | $21.0k | missed |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? | LOW BUY Yes @ 40¢ | $20.9k | called |
| Warriors vs. Clippers | LOW BUY Warriors @ 33¢ | $20.6k | called |
| Hornets vs. Magic | LOW BUY Hornets @ 59¢ | $20.1k | missed |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | LOW BUY No @ 84¢ | $20.0k | missed |
| Trail Blazers vs. Suns | LOW BUY Suns @ 60¢ | $19.5k | missed |
| Warriors vs. Suns | LOW BUY Warriors @ 42¢ | $19.3k | missed |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | LOW BUY No @ 94¢ | $18.9k | called |
| Magic vs. 76ers | LOW BUY Magic @ 47¢ | $18.8k | missed |
| Magic vs. 76ers | LOW BUY Magic @ 48¢ | $18.6k | missed |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | LOW BUY No @ 94¢ | $18.3k | called |
| Hornets vs. Magic | LOW BUY Hornets @ 58¢ | $17.9k | missed |
| Hornets vs. Magic | LOW SELL Magic @ 40¢ | $17.8k | missed |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? | LOW BUY Yes @ 37¢ | $17.8k | called |
| Magic vs. Pistons | LOW BUY Magic @ 21¢ | $17.4k | called |
| Rockets vs. Lakers | LOW BUY Lakers @ 36¢ | $17.3k | called |
| Trail Blazers vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Trail Blazers @ 17¢ | $17.3k | missed |
| Heat vs. Hornets | LOW BUY Hornets @ 70¢ | $17.2k | called |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | LOW BUY No @ 88¢ | $17.1k | called |
| Trail Blazers vs. Suns | LOW BUY Suns @ 58¢ | $16.9k | missed |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | LOW SELL Yes @ 65¢ | $16.4k | missed |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | LOW BUY No @ 91¢ | $16.3k | called |
| Hawks vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Knicks @ 69¢ | $16.3k | called |
| Magic vs. Pistons | LOW SELL Pistons @ 78¢ | $16.0k | called |
| Warriors vs. Suns | LOW BUY Warriors @ 42¢ | $15.7k | missed |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | LOW BUY No @ 94¢ | $15.0k | called |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | LOW SELL Yes @ 64¢ | $15.0k | missed |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | LOW BUY No @ 94¢ | $14.9k | called |
 Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Karolina Muchova vs Coco Gauff | LOW BUY Coco Gauff @ 69¢ | $14.7k | missed |
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