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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 6. The prices it paid implied about 3.8 wins, so it did +3.7 pts better than the market expected. That's only 6 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: -5.4 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+3.7 pts
Called / graded
4/6
Expected from price
3.8
Flagged volume
$329.0k
Sample size6 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±19.0 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$21k6 graded bets in the order they resolved · 4 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) at 51¢) and the edge is -5.4 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
50% vs 46% · n=2
60–80¢
67% vs 67% · n=3
80–100¢
100% vs 83% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$81.1k
Last 30 days +$0 · $4.22M volume · 3,987 trades · since Sep 06, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$674.4k
Open P&L · 91 positions
−$754.9k
Closed-position win rate
93%
102 closed
Wallet age · markets
413d
187 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 6 | 4 | 3.8 | +3.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Trail Blazers vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 83¢ | $12.4k | called |
| Rockets vs. Lakers | LOW BUY Rockets @ 66¢ | $29.7k | missed |
| Hawks vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Knicks @ 68¢ | $28.2k | called |
| Warriors vs. Suns | LOW BUY Warriors @ 42¢ | $28.4k | missed |
| Hornets vs. Magic | LOW BUY Magic @ 43¢ | $19.3k | excluded |
 Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? | LOW SELL No @ 97¢ | $19.2k | missed |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? | LOW BUY No @ 95.1¢ | $59.5k 2.0× usual |
called |
 Seahawks vs. Patriots | LOW BUY Seahawks @ 68¢ | $32.2k | called |
| Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) | LOW BUY Seahawks @ 51¢ | $50.0k | called |
 Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 69¢ | $50.0k | excluded |
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