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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 2.7 wins, so it did -14.2 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-14.2 pts
Called / graded
2/5
Expected from price
2.7
Flagged volume
$699.9k
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±21.4 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$7725 graded bets in the order they resolved · 2 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17? at 49¢) and the edge is -30.5 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
33% vs 44% · n=3
60–80¢
50% vs 70% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$407.1k
Last 30 days +$0 · $29.33M volume · 54,211 trades · since Feb 17, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$7.19M
Open P&L · 143 positions
−$6.78M
Closed-position win rate
99%
142 closed
Wallet age · markets
250d
279 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 5 | 2 | 2.7 | -14.2 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17? | MED BUY No @ 49¢ | $189.6k 2.3× usual |
called |
 Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14? | LOW BUY Yes @ 41¢ | $43.5k | missed |
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14? | LOW BUY Yes @ 42¢ | $60.8k | missed |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? | MED BUY No @ 62¢ | $117.2k | missed |
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-18? | MED BUY Yes @ 77¢ | $83.7k | called |
| Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-17? | MED BUY Yes @ 42¢ | $113.4k | excluded |
| FC Internazionale Milano vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: O/U 3.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 57¢ | $11.7k | excluded |
| Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-17? | LOW BUY Yes @ 45¢ | $80.0k | excluded |
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