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alienreal

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did +6.1 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+6.1 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.9
Flagged volume
$1.90M
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±23.9 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$299.8k
Last 30 days +$0 · $9.54M volume · 5,983 trades · since Dec 10, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L
+$299.8k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
79%
29 closed
Wallet age · markets
318d
25 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Other110.9+6.1 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $94.2k
3.0× usual
100% 185d agoexcluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ $30.4k100% 185d agoexcluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?LOW BUY Yes @ 76¢ $21.5k76% 192d agocalled
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 93.9¢ $26.3k94% 193d agocalled
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?LOW SELL Yes @ 53¢ $31.8k47% 193d agomissed
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?LOW SELL Yes @ 52¢ $38.2k48% 193d agoexcluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?MED SELL Yes @ 71¢ $39.7k29% 195d agoexcluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?LOW SELL Yes @ 65¢ $22.4k35% 195d agoexcluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?LOW BUY Yes @ 51¢ $26.5k51% 197d agoexcluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?LOW BUY Yes @ 62¢ $20.8k62% 197d agocalled
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?LOW SELL Yes @ 48¢ $25.6k52% 198d agoexcluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?LOW BUY Yes @ 42¢ $16.0k42% 198d agoexcluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?LOW SELL Yes @ 23¢ $43.3k77% 198d agoexcluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?MED SELL Yes @ 50¢ $119.2k
3.8× usual
50% 199d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?LOW SELL Yes @ 98.8¢ $81.6k
2.6× usual
1% 199d agoexcluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?LOW BUY Yes @ 67¢ $11.4k67% 199d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?MED SELL Yes @ 44¢ $147.6k
4.7× usual
56% 199d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $1.10M
35.4× usual
100% 317d agoexcluded

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