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What this means. A wallet put $39.7k on not Yes, at a price that gave it a 29% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$39.7k
SELL Yes @ 71¢ · 55,857 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideLate (<1h before start)Sports
What happened
Wallet alienreal took Yes (sell) for $39.7k at an average 71¢. At that price the market implied a 29% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $39.7k+1
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 71¢
- Implied odds
- 29.0%
- As American odds
- +245 no vig
- Size
- $39.7k
- Placed
- Apr 11, 16:34 EDT
- Market close
- Apr 06, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- alienreal
- Tx
- 0x86dfd23d…
This wallet's graded record
1/1+6.1 pts
expected 0.9 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $79.9k 2.8× usual |
excluded |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $29.9k | excluded |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $25.0k | excluded |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $11.6k | excluded |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $50.0k | excluded |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $58.1k | excluded |