← Wallets
−$287Troy · avg 53¢ → 52¢ · $30.3k−$199Ravens · avg 47¢ → 46¢ · $6,042+$517Lions · avg 45¢ → 50¢ · $5,684+$159Under · avg 50¢ → 52¢ · $5,443+$214Georgia Tech · avg 65¢ → 68¢ · $4,180+$132Steelers · avg 54¢ → 56¢ · $2,992−$19Eagles · avg 52¢ → 52¢ · $2,410−$65Ravens · avg 53¢ → 50¢ · $1,313
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 13 of 18. The prices it paid implied about 12.1 wins, so it did +5.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 18 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +2.5 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Open bets: who else is there
Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.
None of its 1 open bets has a proven or losing wallet on either side yet.
Price-adjusted edge
+5.0 pts
Called / graded
13/18
Expected from price
12.1
Flagged volume
$1.08M
Sample size18 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±11.0 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$87k18 graded bets in the order they resolved · 13 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Spread: Knicks (-4.5) at 52¢) and the edge is +2.5 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
100% vs 56% · n=3
60–80¢
64% vs 69% · n=14
80–100¢
100% vs 80% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$553.6k
Last 30 days +$374.0k · $38.16M volume · 27,433 trades · since Apr 02, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$6.33M
Open P&L · 500 positions
−$5.67M
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
205d
5505 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 18 | 13 | 12.1 | +5.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Spread: Troy (-11.5) | LOW BUY Troy @ 53¢ | $30.6k | pending |
 Thunder vs. Spurs | MED BUY Thunder @ 51¢ | $34.3k | excluded |
| Missouri State vs. Delaware | LOW BUY Missouri State @ 40¢ | $22.6k | excluded |
| Middle Tennessee vs. Florida International: O/U 45.5 | LOW BUY Under @ 48¢ | $19.8k | excluded |
| Missouri State vs. Delaware | LOW BUY Delaware @ 59¢ | $23.7k | called |
| Spread: Knicks (-4.5) | MED BUY 76ers @ 52¢ | $47.6k 2.6× usual |
called |
| Memphis vs. Tulane | LOW BUY Memphis @ 69¢ | $11.6k | excluded |
 Jaguars vs. Bengals | MED BUY Bengals @ 56¢ | $67.6k 3.7× usual |
excluded |
| Cowboys vs. Texans | MED BUY Texans @ 58¢ | $66.4k 3.6× usual |
excluded |
| Rams vs. Broncos | MED BUY Broncos @ 50¢ | $68.4k 3.7× usual |
excluded |
| Raiders vs. Saints | LOW BUY Saints @ 64¢ | $10.0k | excluded |
| Vikings vs. Buccaneers | LOW BUY Buccaneers @ 49¢ | $10.2k | excluded |
| Eagles vs. Bears | LOW BUY Eagles @ 64¢ | $10.8k | missed |
| Packers vs. Jets | LOW BUY Packers @ 60¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
| Vikings vs. Bears | MED BUY Vikings @ 34¢ | $23.4k | excluded |
| Eagles vs. Titans | LOW BUY Eagles @ 75¢ | $61.2k 3.3× usual |
called |
 San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves | MED BUY Atlanta Braves @ 69¢ | $34.7k | called |
 Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 59¢ | $17.0k | called |
 Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? | LOW BUY No @ 76¢ | $12.3k | called |
| Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? | LOW BUY No @ 74¢ | $33.9k | called |
| Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 56¢ | $13.0k | excluded |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? | LOW BUY Yes @ 59¢ | $16.7k | called |
| Will France win on 2026-06-26? | LOW BUY Yes @ 70¢ | $11.4k | called |
| Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? | LOW BUY No @ 80¢ | $10.6k | called |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-19? | LOW BUY Yes @ 62¢ | $25.8k | excluded |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | MED BUY Spurs @ 64¢ | $48.6k 2.6× usual |
excluded |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates | LOW BUY Los Angeles Dodgers @ 64¢ | $13.0k | missed |
| Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | LOW BUY Los Angeles Dodgers @ 68¢ | $15.9k | missed |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | MED BUY Spurs @ 68¢ | $31.4k | excluded |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 66¢ | $11.5k | missed |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Knicks @ 65¢ | $13.6k | called |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Thunder @ 68¢ | $15.6k | called |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | MED BUY Thunder @ 68¢ | $31.2k | called |
| Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves | MED BUY Atlanta Braves @ 63¢ | $25.1k | missed |
| Pistons vs. Cavaliers | LOW BUY Cavaliers @ 59¢ | $21.1k | excluded |
| Raptors vs. Cavaliers | LOW BUY Cavaliers @ 72¢ | $14.3k | excluded |
| Hawks vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Knicks @ 69¢ | $16.3k | called |
| Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego Padres | LOW BUY Seattle Mariners @ 52¢ | $19.3k | excluded |
 Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14? | LOW BUY No @ 58¢ | $13.1k | excluded |
| Hornets vs. Celtics | LOW BUY Celtics @ 65¢ | $43.6k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
| Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines | LOW BUY Michigan Wolverines @ 50¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
 Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-04-04? | LOW BUY No @ 59¢ | $10.3k | excluded |
| Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines | LOW BUY Arizona Wildcats @ 48¢ | $18.5k | excluded |
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