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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 2.3 wins, so it did -8.2 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-8.2 pts
Called / graded
2/4
Expected from price
2.3
Flagged volume
$730.8k
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±23.5 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$9,694
Last 30 days +$0 · $5.91M volume · 3,712 trades · since Jan 10, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$202.8k
Open P&L · 9 positions
−$41.6k
Closed-position win rate
51%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
288d
493 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.8 | -78.6 pts |
| Sports | 3 | 2 | 1.5 | +15.3 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17? | LOW BUY No @ 79¢ | $12.0k | missed |
 76ers vs. Knicks | MED BUY 76ers @ 21¢ | $29.0k | missed |
| 76ers vs. Knicks | MED SELL Knicks @ 79¢ | $102.7k 2.6× usual |
missed |
| 76ers vs. Knicks | MED BUY Knicks @ 74¢ | $97.3k 2.4× usual |
called |
| Timberwolves vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Timberwolves @ 22¢ | $10.5k | excluded |
| Celtics vs. 76ers | LOW SELL 76ers @ 33¢ | $40.3k | excluded |
| Celtics vs. 76ers | LOW BUY 76ers @ 36¢ | $47.3k | excluded |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | MED SELL Lakers @ 44¢ | $76.2k | called |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | LOW BUY Lakers @ 40¢ | $77.1k | missed |
| Spurs vs. Trail Blazers | LOW BUY Trail Blazers @ 32¢ | $11.1k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Trail Blazers | MED SELL Spurs @ 70¢ | $69.1k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Trail Blazers | MED BUY Spurs @ 67¢ | $65.5k | excluded |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | LOW SELL Lakers @ 36¢ | $10.4k | excluded |
| Rockets vs. Lakers | LOW BUY Lakers @ 36¢ | $17.3k | called |
| Celtics vs. Bucks | LOW BUY Celtics @ 57¢ | $39.9k | called |
| Cavaliers vs. Bucks | LOW BUY Cavaliers @ 61¢ | $14.5k | missed |
 Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev | LOW SELL Zverev @ 44¢ | $10.7k | excluded |
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