← Wallets
−$89Yes · avg 9¢ → 5.5¢ · $139+$4Yes · avg 3.6¢ → 3.8¢ · $112−$3Yes · avg 7¢ → 6.8¢ · $60−$85Yes · avg 7¢ → 2.8¢ · $55−$61Yes · avg 5.3¢ → 2.2¢ · $45−$5Yes · avg 3.7¢ → 3.1¢ · $32
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 6 of 13. The prices it paid implied about 5.7 wins, so it did +2.5 pts better than the market expected. That's only 13 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: -4.2 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+2.5 pts
Called / graded
6/13
Expected from price
5.7
Flagged volume
$564.3k
Sample size13 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±12.3 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$69k13 graded bets in the order they resolved · 6 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Trail Blazers vs. Spurs at 16¢) and the edge is -4.2 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
50% vs 14% · n=2
20–40¢
25% vs 29% · n=4
40–60¢
0% vs 46% · n=3
60–80¢
100% vs 68% · n=3
80–100¢
100% vs 84% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$94.8k
Last 30 days −$183 · $56.91M volume · 124,947 trades · since Aug 19, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$1.16M
Open P&L · 15 positions
−$1,562
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
796d
3578 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 13 | 6 | 5.7 | +2.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Broncos vs. Chiefs | LOW SELL Chiefs @ 55¢ | $14.5k | missed |
 Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01? | LOW SELL No @ 49¢ | $14.7k | excluded |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? | LOW SELL No @ 39¢ | $11.7k | called |
| Will France win on 2026-06-26? | LOW BUY Yes @ 70¢ | $16.7k | called |
| Will France win on 2026-06-26? | LOW SELL No @ 34¢ | $20.4k | called |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? | LOW BUY No @ 36¢ | $10.4k | missed |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? | LOW BUY Yes @ 67¢ | $20.1k | called |
| Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? | LOW BUY No @ 40¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
 Spurs vs. Knicks | LOW SELL Knicks @ 53¢ | $15.9k | excluded |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | LOW SELL Knicks @ 64¢ | $19.2k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | LOW SELL Thunder @ 67¢ | $20.1k | missed |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | LOW SELL Pistons @ 63¢ | $16.3k | excluded |
| Pistons vs. Cavaliers | LOW SELL Cavaliers @ 58¢ | $17.4k | missed |
| 76ers vs. Celtics | LOW SELL Celtics @ 67¢ | $20.1k | excluded |
| 76ers vs. Celtics | MED SELL Celtics @ 68¢ | $26.1k | excluded |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | LOW SELL Rockets @ 60¢ | $18.0k | excluded |
| Pistons vs. Magic | LOW SELL Magic @ 40¢ | $17.3k | excluded |
| Trail Blazers vs. Spurs | MED SELL Spurs @ 84¢ | $25.2k | called |
| Trail Blazers vs. Spurs | MED BUY Spurs @ 84¢ | $25.1k | called |
| Magic vs. Pistons | LOW SELL Pistons @ 78¢ | $16.0k | called |
| Heat vs. Hornets | LOW BUY Heat @ 30¢ | $10.4k | missed |
| Heat vs. Hornets | LOW BUY Hornets @ 71¢ | $25.4k | called |
| Hornets vs. Celtics | LOW SELL Celtics @ 63¢ | $18.2k | excluded |
| Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets | LOW SELL Nuggets @ 74¢ | $12.1k | missed |
| Spurs vs. Clippers | MED SELL Spurs @ 49¢ | $27.5k | missed |
| Nets vs. Celtics | LOW SELL Celtics @ 89¢ | $17.8k | missed |
| Lakers vs. Suns | LOW BUY Suns @ 35¢ | $14.0k | excluded |
| Timberwolves vs. Trail Blazers | LOW SELL Timberwolves @ 66¢ | $13.2k | excluded |
| Seahawks vs. Patriots | LOW SELL Patriots @ 32¢ | $25.6k | excluded |
| Patriots vs. Broncos | MED SELL Patriots @ 66¢ | $42.9k 2.4× usual |
missed |
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