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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 7. The prices it paid implied about 3.4 wins, so it did -34.8 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 7 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-34.8 pts
Called / graded
1/7
Expected from price
3.4
Flagged volume
$819.5k
Sample size7 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.8 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$788k7 graded bets in the order they resolved · 1 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Spread: Spain (-2.5) at 45¢) and the edge is -49.8 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
14% vs 49% · n=7
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$1.33M
Last 30 days +$0 · $12.18M volume · 2,042 trades · since Apr 08, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$2.25M
Open P&L · 151 positions
−$3.55M
Closed-position win rate
92%
172 closed
Wallet age · markets
199d
323 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 7 | 1 | 3.4 | -34.8 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 52¢ | $264.9k 2.5× usual |
missed |
| Spread: Spain (-2.5) | LOW BUY Cabo Verde @ 45¢ | $14.0k | called |
| Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 52¢ | $49.9k | missed |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | MED BUY No @ 51¢ | $196.9k | missed |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | MED BUY No @ 51¢ | $168.3k | missed |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | LOW BUY No @ 51¢ | $19.4k | missed |
 Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14? | MED BUY Yes @ 41¢ | $106.1k | missed |
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