← Wallets
−$5,224No · avg 93.7¢ → 91.5¢ · $220.1k−$1,216No · avg 86¢ → 86¢ · $181.2k+$101No · avg 98¢ → 98¢ · $100.8k−$1,350No · avg 86¢ → 82¢ · $24.4k−$746No · avg 93.7¢ → 90.5¢ · $20.8k−$125No · avg 94.1¢ → 93.5¢ · $19.9k−$96No · avg 95¢ → 94.5¢ · $19.6k · 1 proven with, 0 against−$62No · avg 92.8¢ → 92.5¢ · $18.2k
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 10 of 12. The prices it paid implied about 11.0 wins, so it did -8.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 12 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-8.5 pts
Called / graded
10/12
Expected from price
11.0
Flagged volume
$904.6k
Sample size12 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±7.8 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$4k12 graded bets in the order they resolved · 10 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? at 82¢) and the edge is -10.9 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
80–100¢
83% vs 92% · n=12
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$104.9k
Last 30 days −$11.3k · $25.83M volume · 44,448 trades · since Feb 12, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$220.8k
Open P&L · 48 positions
−$12.9k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
254d
1020 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 12 | 10 | 11.0 | -8.5 pts |
History
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