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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 14 of 25. The prices it paid implied about 13.2 wins, so it did +3.1 pts better than the market expected. That's no clear edge yet (+3.1 pts over 25 bets). Without its single best bet: +0.6 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+3.1 pts
Called / graded
14/25
Expected from price
13.2
Flagged volume
$1.50M
Sample size25 graded
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±9.8 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$18k25 graded bets in the order they resolved · 14 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Knicks vs. Spurs at 36¢) and the edge is +0.6 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
100% vs 36% · n=2
40–60¢
53% vs 50% · n=17
60–80¢
50% vs 66% · n=6
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$1.47M
Last 30 days −$281.3k · $84.57M volume · 61,917 trades · since Feb 05, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$20.13M
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
261d
1625 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 25 | 14 | 13.2 | +3.1 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Spread: Magic (-1.5) | MED BUY Magic @ 52¢ | $57.2k | excluded |
 Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5 | MED BUY Over @ 51¢ | $48.8k | missed |
| Spread: Trail Blazers (-9.5) | LOW BUY Trail Blazers @ 54¢ | $16.9k | missed |
| Raptors vs. Wizards: O/U 236.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 51¢ | $15.7k | missed |
| Pistons vs. Heat | LOW BUY Pistons @ 53¢ | $14.8k | called |
| Knicks vs. Celtics | MED BUY Knicks @ 45¢ | $54.2k | missed |
| Pelicans vs. Jazz | MED BUY Pelicans @ 50¢ | $36.9k | missed |
| Spread: Timberwolves (-1.5) | MED BUY Magic @ 51¢ | $29.5k | missed |
 Red Wings vs. Canucks | HIGH BUY Red Wings @ 61¢ | $103.4k 2.5× usual |
called |
 San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants | MED BUY San Diego Padres @ 59¢ | $123.7k 3.0× usual |
called |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | MED BUY Los Angeles Dodgers @ 72¢ | $93.2k 2.3× usual |
called |
| Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals | LOW BUY Washington Nationals @ 57¢ | $24.7k | called |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates | LOW BUY Pittsburgh Pirates @ 36¢ | $18.2k | called |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins | MED BUY Arizona Diamondbacks @ 43¢ | $50.0k | missed |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves | MED BUY Atlanta Braves @ 70¢ | $80.2k | missed |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Knicks @ 36¢ | $10.1k | called |
 UFC Fight Night: Daniel Barez vs. Luis Gurule (Flyweight, Prelims) | LOW BUY Luis Gurule @ 60¢ | $13.2k | called |
| UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims) | LOW BUY Grant Dawson @ 55¢ | $11.1k | called |
| Knicks vs. 76ers | MED BUY Knicks @ 41¢ | $205.0k 5.0× usual |
excluded |
 Canadiens vs. Lightning | MED BUY Lightning @ 60¢ | $81.3k | missed |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | MED BUY Nuggets @ 54¢ | $78.4k | excluded |
| Hornets vs. Magic | LOW BUY Magic @ 41¢ | $23.7k | called |
| Hornets vs. Magic | MED BUY Magic @ 41¢ | $59.3k | called |
| Magic vs. 76ers | MED BUY Magic @ 47¢ | $45.5k | missed |
| Trail Blazers vs. Suns | MED BUY Trail Blazers @ 41¢ | $48.8k | called |
| Oilers vs. Sharks | LOW BUY Oilers @ 53¢ | $12.8k | called |
| Oilers vs. Sharks | MED BUY Sharks @ 47¢ | $61.4k | missed |
| Sabres vs. Lightning | MED BUY Lightning @ 69¢ | $34.8k | missed |
| Panthers vs. Lightning | MED BUY Lightning @ 65¢ | $26.7k | called |
| Kings vs. Golden Knights | LOW BUY Golden Knights @ 56¢ | $23.5k | called |
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