HBAFlover98

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 2.7 wins, so it did -14.6 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Price-adjusted edge

-14.6 pts

Called / graded

2/5

Expected from price

2.7

Flagged volume

$195.9k

Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±21.1 pts std. error.

Graded P&L at their stakes

−$43k

5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 2 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.

Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.

Without their best bet

Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will United States win on 2026-06-12? at 47¢) and the edge is -31.5 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.

Calibration: won vs price paid

20–40¢

0% vs 31% · n=1

40–60¢

100% vs 50% · n=2

60–80¢

0% vs 71% · n=2

Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$353.2k

Last 30 days −$2,714 · $22.04M volume · 12,017 trades · since Dec 07, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L · recent 500 closed

+$2.35M

Open P&L · 10 positions

−$78.1k

Closed-position win rate

56%

500 closed

Wallet age · markets

321d

691 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Sports	5	2	2.7	-14.6 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-10-18?	LOW BUY No @ 31¢	$13.9k	31%	5d ago	missed
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5)	LOW BUY Netherlands @ 44¢	$11.6k	44%	120d ago	excluded
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	LOW BUY Yes @ 65¢	$17.6k	65%	121d ago	missed
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	LOW BUY No @ 24¢	$10.0k	24%	127d ago	excluded
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	MED BUY Over @ 77¢	$56.2k 4.0× usual	77%	130d ago	missed
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	LOW BUY Yes @ 47¢	$14.6k	47%	133d ago	called
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-18?	LOW BUY No @ 53¢	$31.9k 2.3× usual	53%	188d ago	called
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-12?	LOW BUY Yes @ 40¢	$14.3k	40%	253d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A	LOW BUY Astralis @ 51¢	$12.8k	51%	262d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A	LOW BUY Natus Vincere @ 47¢	$12.9k	47%	263d ago	excluded

Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-10-18?missed

BUY No @ 31¢$13.9k

LOW HBAFlover98 · 5d ago

Spread: Netherlands (-2.5)excluded

BUY Netherlands @ 44¢$11.6k

LOW HBAFlover98 · 120d ago

Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?missed

BUY Yes @ 65¢$17.6k

LOW HBAFlover98 · 121d ago

Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?excluded

BUY No @ 24¢$10.0k

LOW HBAFlover98 · 127d ago

Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5missed

BUY Over @ 77¢$56.2k

MED HBAFlover98 · 130d ago

Will United States win on 2026-06-12?called

BUY Yes @ 47¢$14.6k

LOW HBAFlover98 · 133d ago

Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-18?called

BUY No @ 53¢$31.9k

LOW HBAFlover98 · 188d ago

Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-12?excluded

BUY Yes @ 40¢$14.3k

LOW HBAFlover98 · 253d ago

Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group Aexcluded

BUY Astralis @ 51¢$12.8k

LOW HBAFlover98 · 262d ago

Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group Aexcluded

BUY Natus Vincere @ 47¢$12.9k

LOW HBAFlover98 · 263d ago

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