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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 2.4 wins, so it did -29.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-29.0 pts
Called / graded
1/5
Expected from price
2.4
Flagged volume
$7.04M
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±20.8 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$233k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 1 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Pistons vs. Cavaliers at 59¢) and the edge is -46.5 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 14% · n=1
40–60¢
33% vs 55% · n=3
60–80¢
0% vs 66% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$713.6k
Last 30 days +$0 · $96.50M volume · 2,734 trades · since Feb 22, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$14.34M
Open P&L · 146 positions
−$2.27M
Closed-position win rate
95%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
244d
1026 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 5 | 1 | 2.4 | -29.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-13? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $103.1k | excluded |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-13? | LOW BUY Yes @ 48¢ | $50.0k | excluded |
 Timberwolves vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Timberwolves @ 22¢ | $22.5k | excluded |
 Sabres vs. Canadiens | LOW BUY Canadiens @ 59¢ | $25.0k | excluded |
| Pistons vs. Cavaliers | MED BUY Cavaliers @ 59¢ | $124.0k | called |
| Spurs vs. Timberwolves | LOW BUY Timberwolves @ 36¢ | $82.5k | excluded |
| Timberwolves vs. Spurs | LOW SELL Timberwolves @ 99.9¢ | $21.2k | excluded |
| 76ers vs. Celtics | LOW SELL 76ers @ 99.9¢ | $19.5k | excluded |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | LOW BUY Nuggets @ 68¢ | $62.3k | excluded |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | LOW SELL Lakers @ 99.9¢ | $139.6k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| Spurs vs. Trail Blazers | LOW BUY Trail Blazers @ 48¢ | $82.3k | excluded |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | LOW BUY Lakers @ 35¢ | $48.1k | excluded |
| Celtics vs. 76ers | LOW BUY 76ers @ 28¢ | $22.8k | excluded |
 Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-04-24? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $67.6k | excluded |
| Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-04-24? | LOW BUY Yes @ 65¢ | $43.5k | excluded |
| Knicks vs. Hawks | LOW SELL Hawks @ 99.9¢ | $107.9k | excluded |
| Knicks vs. Hawks | LOW BUY Hawks @ 50¢ | $53.2k | excluded |
| Rockets vs. Lakers | MED BUY Lakers @ 33¢ | $48.0k | excluded |
| Spread: Spurs (-11.5) | MED BUY Spurs @ 48¢ | $96.9k | missed |
| Hawks vs. Knicks | LOW SELL Hawks @ 99.9¢ | $76.5k | excluded |
| Timberwolves vs. Nuggets | LOW BUY Timberwolves @ 28¢ | $23.9k | excluded |
| Hawks vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Hawks @ 32¢ | $24.0k | excluded |
| Senators vs. Hurricanes | LOW BUY Hurricanes @ 59¢ | $21.5k | excluded |
| Trail Blazers vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Trail Blazers @ 15¢ | $23.7k | excluded |
| Spread: Spurs (-11.5) | LOW BUY Trail Blazers @ 49¢ | $24.2k | excluded |
| Hawks vs. Knicks | HIGH BUY Hawks @ 29¢ | $143.2k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| Warriors vs. Suns | MED BUY Warriors @ 43¢ | $169.1k 2.5× usual |
excluded |
| Hornets vs. Magic | MED BUY Hornets @ 58¢ | $125.9k | missed |
| Magic vs. 76ers | MED SELL 76ers @ 99.9¢ | $310.5k 4.6× usual |
excluded |
| Warriors vs. Clippers | MED BUY Clippers @ 68¢ | $196.2k 2.9× usual |
excluded |
| Magic vs. 76ers | MED BUY 76ers @ 50¢ | $153.0k 2.3× usual |
excluded |
| Trail Blazers vs. Suns | HIGH SELL Trail Blazers @ 70¢ | $120.7k | excluded |
| Trail Blazers vs. Suns | MED BUY Trail Blazers @ 34¢ | $60.5k | excluded |
| Heat vs. Hornets | LOW SELL Hornets @ 99.9¢ | $70.7k | excluded |
| Heat vs. Hornets | LOW BUY Hornets @ 70¢ | $49.1k | excluded |
 Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? | MED SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $278.1k 4.1× usual |
excluded |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? | MED BUY Yes @ 37¢ | $101.0k | excluded |
| Nuggets vs. Spurs | LOW SELL Nuggets @ 99.9¢ | $58.4k | excluded |
| Nuggets vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Nuggets @ 42¢ | $24.1k | excluded |
| Pelicans vs. Timberwolves | MED BUY Pelicans @ 42¢ | $67.5k | excluded |
 Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11? | MED BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $93.5k | excluded |
| Cavaliers vs. Hawks | LOW SELL Hawks @ 99.9¢ | $130.1k | excluded |
| Cavaliers vs. Hawks | LOW BUY Hawks @ 76¢ | $98.6k | excluded |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $185.8k 2.8× usual |
excluded |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? | MED BUY Yes @ 53¢ | $97.2k | called |
| Hornets vs. Celtics | MED BUY Hornets @ 38¢ | $72.2k | excluded |
| Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets | MED BUY Nuggets @ 59¢ | $50.7k | excluded |
| Clippers vs. Kings | LOW BUY Kings @ 14¢ | $21.2k | missed |
| Spread: Celtics (-9.5) | LOW SELL Celtics @ 99.9¢ | $209.9k 3.1× usual |
excluded |
| Spread: Celtics (-9.5) | MED BUY Celtics @ 50¢ | $97.0k | called |
| Spread: Spurs (-2.5) | LOW SELL Nuggets @ 99.9¢ | $92.9k | excluded |
 Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $59.9k | excluded |
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04? | LOW BUY Yes @ 49¢ | $29.1k | excluded |
| Spread: Spurs (-2.5) | LOW BUY Nuggets @ 53¢ | $48.6k | excluded |
| Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-03? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99¢ | $42.9k | excluded |
| Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-03? | LOW BUY Yes @ 57¢ | $24.4k | excluded |
| Spread: Hornets (-5.5) | LOW SELL Hornets @ 99.9¢ | $138.1k 2.0× usual |
excluded |
| Spread: Hornets (-5.5) | MED BUY Hornets @ 53¢ | $72.9k | called |
| Cavaliers vs. Lakers | LOW SELL Lakers @ 99.9¢ | $173.0k 2.6× usual |
excluded |
| Cavaliers vs. Lakers | LOW BUY Lakers @ 57¢ | $97.4k | excluded |
| Spread: Heat (-9.5) | LOW SELL Pacers @ 99.9¢ | $96.4k | excluded |
| Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan Wolverines | LOW BUY Tennessee Volunteers @ 22¢ | $24.8k | excluded |
| Pistons vs. Timberwolves | LOW SELL Pistons @ 99.9¢ | $91.3k | excluded |
| Pistons vs. Timberwolves | MED BUY Pistons @ 55¢ | $50.0k | excluded |
 Michigan State Spartans vs. Connecticut Huskies | LOW BUY Michigan State Spartans @ 45¢ | $49.6k | excluded |
| Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-6.5) | LOW SELL St. Johns Red Storm @ 99.9¢ | $63.1k | excluded |
| Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-6.5) | LOW BUY St. Johns Red Storm @ 51¢ | $32.2k | called |
| Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes | LOW SELL Iowa Hawkeyes @ 99.9¢ | $100.8k | excluded |
| Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes | LOW BUY Iowa Hawkeyes @ 47¢ | $47.2k | excluded |
| Spread: Spurs (-9.5) | MED BUY Spurs @ 53¢ | $150.0k 2.2× usual |
excluded |
| Magic vs. Hawks | LOW BUY Magic @ 43¢ | $50.0k | excluded |
| Kings vs. Clippers | LOW BUY Clippers @ 63¢ | $24.5k | excluded |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11? | LOW BUY Yes @ 65¢ | $25.0k | excluded |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11? | LOW BUY Yes @ 66¢ | $75.0k | missed |
| Timberwolves vs. Lakers | LOW SELL Lakers @ 99.9¢ | $96.6k | excluded |
| Timberwolves vs. Lakers | LOW BUY Lakers @ 44¢ | $42.5k | excluded |
| Celtics vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Celtics @ 42¢ | $75.0k | excluded |
| Spread: Suns (-9.5) | LOW SELL Suns @ 99.9¢ | $49.0k | excluded |
| Spread: Suns (-9.5) | LOW BUY Suns @ 51¢ | $25.0k | excluded |
| Pistons vs. Cavaliers | LOW SELL Cavaliers @ 99.9¢ | $122.6k | excluded |
| Spread: Knicks (-2.5) | LOW BUY Raptors @ 51¢ | $25.0k | excluded |
| Pistons vs. Cavaliers | LOW BUY Cavaliers @ 43¢ | $52.8k | excluded |
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-03? | LOW BUY Yes @ 68¢ | $49.8k | excluded |
| Clippers vs. Warriors | MED BUY Warriors @ 51¢ | $147.7k 2.2× usual |
excluded |
| Celtics vs. Bucks | LOW SELL Celtics @ 99.9¢ | $175.3k 2.6× usual |
excluded |
| Celtics vs. Bucks | LOW BUY Celtics @ 57¢ | $100.0k | called |
| Real Madrid CF vs. Getafe CF: O/U 2.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 48¢ | $25.0k | excluded |
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