← Wallets
+$174No · avg 70¢ → 78¢ · $1,751+$217Over · avg 53¢ → 64¢ · $1,217+$106Spurs · avg 52¢ → 57¢ · $1,106 · 2 proven with, 0 against+$33Under · avg 46¢ → 48¢ · $1,033+$10Bulls · avg 51¢ → 52¢ · $1,010+$0Over · avg 47¢ → 47¢ · $1,000−$10Under · avg 49¢ → 48¢ · $991−$10Pelicans · avg 51¢ → 50¢ · $990
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 6 of 7. The prices it paid implied about 6.3 wins, so it did -4.7 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 7 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-4.7 pts
Called / graded
6/7
Expected from price
6.3
Flagged volume
$668.4k
Sample size7 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±11.0 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$6k7 graded bets in the order they resolved · 6 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Spread: France (-1.5) at 81¢) and the edge is -8.7 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
80–100¢
86% vs 90% · n=7
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$672.7k
Last 30 days −$5,022 · $58.30M volume · 66,219 trades · since Sep 22, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 450 closed
+$3.73M
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
100%
450 closed
Wallet age · markets
397d
11228 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 3 | 2 | 2.7 | -24.3 pts |
| Sports | 4 | 4 | 3.6 | +10.1 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | LOW BUY Los Angeles Dodgers @ 91¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
 Spread: France (-1.5) | LOW BUY Spain @ 81¢ | $10.0k | called |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | LOW BUY No @ 97¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? | LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ | $23.0k | excluded |
| Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? | LOW BUY No @ 98¢ | $35.0k 2.3× usual |
excluded |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $24.0k | excluded |
 Thunder vs. Lakers | LOW SELL Thunder @ 58¢ | $51.8k 3.5× usual |
excluded |
| Thunder vs. Lakers | LOW BUY Thunder @ 83¢ | $20.0k | called |
| Rockets vs. Lakers | LOW SELL Lakers @ 23¢ | $12.1k | excluded |
| Timberwolves vs. Nuggets | LOW BUY Nuggets @ 98.9¢ | $12.3k | excluded |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | LOW BUY Lakers @ 99.5¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | LOW BUY Timberwolves @ 99.2¢ | $22.2k | excluded |
| Trail Blazers vs. Spurs | MED BUY Trail Blazers @ 89¢ | $26.3k | excluded |
| Trail Blazers vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 85¢ | $14.9k | missed |
| Rockets vs. Lakers | LOW BUY Lakers @ 99.9¢ | $22.2k | excluded |
 Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14? | LOW BUY No @ 96.4¢ | $11.0k | excluded |
 Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Bublik | LOW BUY Carlos Alcaraz @ 92¢ | $14.9k | called |
| Kings vs. Warriors | LOW BUY Warriors @ 95.6¢ | $11.0k | excluded |
 US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | LOW BUY No @ 84¢ | $11.0k | called |
| Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines | LOW BUY Michigan Wolverines @ 99.8¢ | $10.0k | excluded |
 US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW BUY No @ 98¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
 US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.6¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
 Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | LOW BUY No @ 94¢ | $15.0k | called |
| Wizards vs. Heat | LOW BUY Heat @ 95¢ | $19.9k | called |
| Bulls vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Knicks @ 92¢ | $10.9k | called |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ | $34.0k 2.3× usual |
excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW BUY No @ 95¢ | $15.0k | missed |
| Timberwolves vs. Lakers | LOW BUY Lakers @ 97.3¢ | $10.1k | excluded |
| Pelicans vs. Lakers | LOW BUY Lakers @ 76¢ | $13.5k | excluded |
 US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $11.5k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 93¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 96¢ | $17.8k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 97.3¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 93.1¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 77¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99¢ | $19.0k | excluded |
Share this record
<a href="https://whalegrader.com/wallet/0xd48a81db62f742c4e42d86dfc23a7ee345366e90"><img src="https://whalegrader.com/badge/wallet/0xd48a81db62f742c4e42d86dfc23a7ee345366e90.svg" alt="WhaleGrader record"></a>
JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xd48a81…