Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$28
Return on staked
-4.0%
Bets
6/7 won
Edge vs price
-4.7 pts ±11.0
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Apr 01, 04:33 EDTJul 13, 19:27 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: France (-1.5) | 81¢ | called | 103d ago |
| Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Bublik | 92¢ | called | 197d ago |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | 84¢ | called | 200d ago |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | 94¢ | called | 203d ago |
| Wizards vs. Heat | 95¢ | called | 203d ago |
| Bulls vs. Knicks | 92¢ | called | 204d ago |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | 95¢ | missed | 206d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.