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What this means. A wallet put $53.3k on not No, at a price that gave it a 3% chance. It lost. This wallet has no clear edge yet (+2.3 pts over 28 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$53.3k
SELL No @ 96.5¢ · 55,246 shares in 2 fills
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog side2 fills in 1hEarly (>24h before close)Proven walletOther
What happened
Wallet ArmageddonRewardsBilly took No (sell) for $53.3k at an average 96.5¢. At that price the market implied a 3% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
HIGHSize $53.3k+1
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
2 fills within 1h+1
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 96.5¢
- Implied odds
- 3.5%
- Size
- $53.3k
- Placed
- Apr 14, 19:48 EDT
- Market close
- Apr 15, 19:55 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- ArmageddonRewardsBilly
- Tx
- 0xb9e5052c…
This wallet's graded record
13/28+2.3 pts
expected 12.4 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -3 ptsNo price · entry 96.5¢ · resolved No · a sell, so a falling price is the whale's way
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $25.5k | excluded |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $12.6k | excluded |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $10.5k | excluded |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $55.0k 2.6× usual |
excluded |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $10.9k | excluded |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $55.6k | excluded |