DegenCAD

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.3 wins, so it did -27.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Price-adjusted edge

-27.0 pts

Called / graded

0/1

Expected from price

0.3

Flagged volume

$311.6k

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±44.4 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$58.6k

Last 30 days +$0 · $1.23M volume · 175 trades · since Jan 29, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

−$58.6k

Open P&L · 0 positions

+$0

Closed-position win rate

58%

52 closed

Wallet age · markets

—

50 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Other	1	0	0.3	-27.0 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	LOW BUY Yes @ 27¢	$15.1k	27%	131d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	MED SELL No @ 96.2¢	$38.4k	4%	151d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 48¢	$10.2k	48%	153d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 58¢	$14.3k	42%	154d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 81¢	$19.8k	81%	165d ago	called
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	MED SELL No @ 95.7¢	$74.1k 3.5× usual	4%	182d ago	missed
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	LOW BUY No @ 68¢	$22.6k	68%	187d ago	called
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?	LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢	$55.0k 2.6× usual	0%	191d ago	excluded
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?	LOW BUY No @ 78¢	$42.9k 2.0× usual	78%	207d ago	called
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	LOW BUY No @ 49¢	$19.2k	49%	218d ago	called

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?missed

BUY Yes @ 27¢$15.1k

LOW DegenCAD · 131d ago

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?excluded

SELL No @ 96.2¢$38.4k

MED DegenCAD · 151d ago

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?called

BUY No @ 48¢$10.2k

LOW DegenCAD · 153d ago

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?missed

SELL No @ 58¢$14.3k

LOW DegenCAD · 154d ago

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?called

BUY No @ 81¢$19.8k

LOW DegenCAD · 165d ago

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?missed

SELL No @ 95.7¢$74.1k

MED DegenCAD · 182d ago

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?called

BUY No @ 68¢$22.6k

LOW DegenCAD · 187d ago

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?excluded

SELL No @ 99.9¢$55.0k

LOW DegenCAD · 191d ago

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?called

BUY No @ 78¢$42.9k

LOW DegenCAD · 207d ago

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?called

BUY No @ 49¢$19.2k

LOW DegenCAD · 218d ago

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