newnewuser

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.6 wins, so it did +17.6 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?+$645No · avg 72¢ → 91.1¢ · $3,154 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2027?+$128Yes · avg 66¢ → 72¢ · $1,810 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?+$54Yes · avg 33¢ → 35¢ · $913 Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?+$59No · avg 92.1¢ → 98.6¢ · $904 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?−$1No · avg 89¢ → 88¢ · $683 Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?+$60No · avg 82¢ → 90¢ · $672 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by April 30, 2027?−$40No · avg 60¢ → 56¢ · $560 SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?+$3No · avg 94.6¢ → 95.2¢ · $521

Price-adjusted edge

+17.6 pts

Called / graded

2/2

Expected from price

1.6

Flagged volume

$64.0k

Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±26.4 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$35.0k

Last 30 days +$1,664 · $19.74M volume · 96,652 trades · since Jan 08, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L · recent 500 closed

+$393.9k

Open P&L · 124 positions

−$24.4k

Closed-position win rate

78%

500 closed

Wallet age · markets

289d

444 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Other	2	2	1.6	+17.6 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢	$17.2k	0%	129d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 75¢	$10.7k	75%	153d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 90¢	$25.2k	90%	162d ago	called
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?	LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢	$10.9k	0%	191d ago	excluded

US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?excluded

SELL Yes @ 99.9¢$17.2k

LOW newnewuser · 129d ago

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?called

BUY No @ 75¢$10.7k

LOW newnewuser · 153d ago

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?called

BUY No @ 90¢$25.2k

LOW newnewuser · 162d ago

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?excluded

SELL No @ 99.9¢$10.9k

LOW newnewuser · 191d ago

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