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−$3,265Yes · avg 18¢ → 14¢ · $12.5k−$5,900Yes · avg 41¢ → 12¢ · $2,300 · 0 proven with, 1 against
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 7. The prices it paid implied about 3.1 wins, so it did -1.2 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 7 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-1.2 pts
Called / graded
3/7
Expected from price
3.1
Flagged volume
$163.8k
Sample size7 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±14.1 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$1k7 graded bets in the order they resolved · 3 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? at 17¢) and the edge is -15.2 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
33% vs 9% · n=3
40–60¢
0% vs 44% · n=1
60–80¢
50% vs 75% · n=2
80–100¢
100% vs 87% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$30.3k
Last 30 days +$1,182 · $11.32M volume · 5,677 trades · since Oct 29, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$281.2k
Open P&L · 47 positions
−$208.7k
Closed-position win rate
98%
100 closed
Wallet age · markets
361d
175 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 6 | 3 | 2.6 | +6.0 pts |
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.4 | -44.2 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will France win on 2026-06-30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 77¢ | $10.0k | called |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? | LOW BUY Yes @ 73¢ | $10.0k | missed |
 Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 13¢ | $13.5k | called |
 Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 5.2¢ | $10.4k | missed |
 Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 17¢ | $10.2k | called |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 5.3¢ | $19.1k | missed |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢ | $18.6k | excluded |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | LOW SELL No @ 56¢ | $14.0k | missed |
 Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $25.5k | excluded |
 Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | LOW SELL No @ 93.3¢ | $17.0k | called |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | LOW BUY No @ 85¢ | $15.5k | missed |
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