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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did +8.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+8.0 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.9
Flagged volume
$101.6k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±27.1 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$23.7k
Last 30 days +$496 · $681.5k volume · 889 trades · since Jan 21, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$24.8k
Open P&L · 3 positions
+$1,163
Closed-position win rate
74%
68 closed
Wallet age · markets
276d
70 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +8.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 75¢ | $13.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 92¢ | $10.1k | called |
 US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $22.9k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 95.5¢ | $21.9k | excluded |
 Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $10.5k | excluded |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | LOW BUY No @ 94¢ | $23.2k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xc8aef3…