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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 10 of 11. The prices it paid implied about 7.0 wins, so it did +27.4 pts better than the market expected. That's only 11 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +21.9 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+27.4 pts
Called / graded
10/11
Expected from price
7.0
Flagged volume
$2.37M
Sample size11 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±12.2 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$162k11 graded bets in the order they resolved · 10 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? at 17¢) and the edge is +21.9 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
50% vs 16% · n=2
20–40¢
100% vs 34% · n=1
60–80¢
100% vs 75% · n=4
80–100¢
100% vs 82% · n=4
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$335.0k
Last 30 days +$0 · $12.20M volume · 2,531 trades · since Mar 15, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$251.0k
Open P&L · 8 positions
−$609.9k
Closed-position win rate
69%
68 closed
Wallet age · markets
223d
68 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 4 | 4 | 3.3 | +18.5 pts |
| Other | 7 | 6 | 3.7 | +32.6 pts |
History
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xf39651…