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What this means. A wallet put $10.4k on not Yes, at a price that gave it a 17% chance. It won. This wallet has only 11 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$10.4k
SELL Yes @ 83¢ · 12,495 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideEarly (>24h before close)Other
What happened
Wallet Pajamapants took Yes (sell) for $10.4k at an average 83¢. At that price the market implied a 17% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag called it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $10.4k+0
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 83¢
- Implied odds
- 17.0%
- Size
- $10.4k
- Placed
- Apr 17, 13:37 EDT
- Market close
- Apr 20, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- Pajamapants
- Tx
- 0xd5b907de…
This wallet's graded record
10/11+27.4 pts
expected 7.0 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade +83 ptsYes price · entry 83¢ · resolved No · a sell, so a falling price is the whale's way
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 98.5¢ | $13.5k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 95¢ | $15.2k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 94¢ | $10.9k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 93¢ | $10.9k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 86¢ | $10.3k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 53¢ | $10.8k | excluded |