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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.7 wins, so it did +13.3 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+13.3 pts
Called / graded
2/2
Expected from price
1.7
Flagged volume
$203.9k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±23.9 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$98.3k
Last 30 days +$0 · $4.96M volume · 4,124 trades · since Apr 15, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$102.7k
Open P&L · 1 positions
−$2
Closed-position win rate
74%
303 closed
Wallet age · markets
558d
300 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 2 | 2 | 1.7 | +13.3 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will France win on 2026-06-30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 86¢ | $12.9k | excluded |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? | LOW BUY Yes @ 85¢ | $17.0k | excluded |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? | LOW SELL Yes @ 64¢ | $12.8k | excluded |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? | LOW BUY Yes @ 69¢ | $13.8k | excluded |
 Will Trump visit China by May 15? | LOW BUY Yes @ 91¢ | $15.9k | excluded |
 US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $22.1k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 95¢ | $14.5k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 93¢ | $10.9k | excluded |
 Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 94.9¢ | $11.2k | excluded |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | MED BUY No @ 95¢ | $51.3k 3.8× usual |
excluded |
 Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 89¢ | $10.7k | called |
 US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 84¢ | $10.9k | called |
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