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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.4 wins, so it did +27.7 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+27.7 pts
Called / graded
2/2
Expected from price
1.4
Flagged volume
$342.8k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±31.6 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$123.2k
Last 30 days −$0 · $4.31M volume · 3,719 trades · since Nov 24, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$139.3k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
73%
393 closed
Wallet age · markets
334d
350 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 2 | 2 | 1.4 | +27.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 75¢ | $10.4k | called |
 MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ | $48.7k 2.5× usual |
excluded |
 US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ | $223.1k 11.4× usual |
excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 53¢ | $10.8k | excluded |
 Netanyahu out by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $19.6k | excluded |
 Will Trump visit China by April 30? | LOW BUY No @ 69¢ | $10.1k | called |
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