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What this means. A wallet put $15.2k on No, at a price that gave it a 95% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$15.2k
BUY No @ 95¢ · 15,981 shares
Size ≥ $10kHeavy favoriteLate (<1h before start)Other
What happened
Wallet anon.1980.123 took No (buy) for $15.2k at an average 95¢. At that price the market implied a 95% chance for that side. The market resolved No. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $15.2k+0
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 95¢ means
95%chance the market gave
−1900American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 95¢
- Implied odds
- 95.0%
- Size
- $15.2k
- Placed
- Apr 21, 22:01 EDT
- Market close
- Apr 20, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- anon.1980.123
- Tx
- 0x93687142…
This wallet's graded record
1/2-7.7 pts
expected 1.2 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 98.5¢ | $13.5k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 94¢ | $10.9k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 93¢ | $10.9k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 86¢ | $10.3k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 53¢ | $10.8k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 47¢ | $11.7k | excluded |