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What this means. A wallet put $167.4k on not No, at a price that gave it a 1% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 11 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$167.4k
SELL No @ 99.2¢ · 168,705 shares in 5 fills
Size ≥ $100kUnderdog side5 fills in 1hLate (<1h before start)5× this wallet's usual betOther
What happened
Wallet Pajamapants took No (sell) for $167.4k at an average 99.2¢. At that price the market implied a 1% chance for that side. The market resolved No. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $167.4k+2
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
Near-certain price-2
5 fills within 1h+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 99.2¢
- Implied odds
- 0.8%
- Size
- $167.4k
- Placed
- Apr 22, 10:29 EDT
- Market close
- Apr 21, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- Pajamapants
- Tx
- 0xf6c8eaa2…
This wallet's graded record
10/11+27.4 pts
expected 7.0 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $11.4k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $16.4k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $18.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $15.9k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $15.5k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |