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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 6 of 20. The prices it paid implied about 9.7 wins, so it did -18.4 pts worse than the market expected. That's no clear edge yet (-18.4 pts over 20 bets). Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-18.4 pts
Called / graded
6/20
Expected from price
9.7
Flagged volume
$2.11M
Sample size20 graded
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±10.8 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$213k20 graded bets in the order they resolved · 6 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Oilers vs. Sharks at 51¢) and the edge is -21.9 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
0% vs 33% · n=6
40–60¢
30% vs 50% · n=10
60–80¢
75% vs 66% · n=4
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$212.4k
Last 30 days −$0 · $119.06M volume · 63,795 trades · since Dec 31, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$23.72M
Open P&L · 500 positions
−$22.38M
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
297d
— markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 20 | 6 | 9.7 | -18.4 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Hornets vs. Magic | LOW BUY Hornets @ 58¢ | $26.9k | excluded |
| Hornets vs. Magic | LOW BUY Hornets @ 59¢ | $20.1k | missed |
 Capitals vs. Blue Jackets | LOW BUY Blue Jackets @ 59¢ | $35.7k | excluded |
 Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A | LOW BUY Spirit @ 48¢ | $24.6k | excluded |
| Oilers vs. Sharks | LOW BUY Oilers @ 51¢ | $20.4k | called |
| Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines | LOW BUY Arizona Wildcats @ 49¢ | $11.0k | excluded |
| Canucks vs. Flames | LOW BUY Canucks @ 41¢ | $14.2k | missed |
| Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcats | LOW BUY Purdue Boilermakers @ 29¢ | $14.4k | missed |
 Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougars | LOW BUY Illinois Fighting Illini @ 44¢ | $43.6k | excluded |
| Flames vs. Ducks | LOW BUY Ducks @ 63¢ | $51.4k | excluded |
| Timberwolves vs. Trail Blazers | LOW BUY Trail Blazers @ 32¢ | $12.3k | missed |
| Warriors vs. Pelicans | LOW BUY Pelicans @ 47¢ | $50.7k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Warriors | MED BUY Warriors @ 38¢ | $28.3k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Warriors | MED BUY Warriors @ 34¢ | $34.0k | missed |
 LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals | LOW BUY Invictus Gaming @ 63¢ | $10.2k | missed |
 Seahawks vs. Patriots | MED SELL Patriots @ 32¢ | $160.0k 5.0× usual |
excluded |
| Seahawks vs. Patriots | MED BUY Patriots @ 32¢ | $160.0k 5.0× usual |
missed |
| Counter-Strike: G2 vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs | LOW BUY MOUZ @ 62¢ | $11.2k | called |
| Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs | LOW BUY FURIA @ 65¢ | $15.9k | called |
| Predators vs. Capitals | LOW SELL Capitals @ 99.9¢ | $131.9k 4.2× usual |
excluded |
| Panthers vs. Lightning | LOW BUY Panthers @ 38¢ | $15.2k | missed |
| Kings vs. Golden Knights | LOW BUY Kings @ 46¢ | $24.0k | missed |
| Bruins vs. Panthers | LOW BUY Panthers @ 60¢ | $29.8k | excluded |
| Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B | MED SELL MOUZ @ 99.9¢ | $251.6k 7.9× usual |
excluded |
| Sabres vs. Lightning | LOW BUY Sabres @ 38¢ | $58.2k | missed |
| Kraken vs. Ducks | LOW BUY Kraken @ 45¢ | $42.3k | missed |
| Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B | LOW SELL MOUZ @ 62¢ | $61.0k | excluded |
| Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B | LOW BUY MOUZ @ 44¢ | $45.8k | excluded |
| Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B | LOW BUY Aurora Gaming @ 26¢ | $22.7k | missed |
| 76ers vs. Clippers | LOW BUY Clippers @ 48¢ | $12.3k | missed |
| Maple Leafs vs. Flames | LOW BUY Flames @ 48¢ | $33.6k | missed |
 UFC 325: Fiziev vs. Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) | LOW BUY Fiziev @ 54¢ | $15.8k | missed |
| Rangers vs. Islanders | LOW BUY Islanders @ 55¢ | $40.7k | called |
| Spread: Hornets (-2.5) | LOW SELL Hornets @ 99.9¢ | $59.9k | excluded |
| Trail Blazers vs. Celtics | LOW BUY Celtics @ 75¢ | $18.5k | called |
| Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5) | LOW BUY Timberwolves @ 58¢ | $58.0k | called |
| Rams vs. Seahawks | MED BUY Rams @ 45¢ | $135.0k 4.3× usual |
excluded |
| Patriots vs. Broncos | MED SELL Patriots @ 99.9¢ | $311.8k 9.8× usual |
excluded |
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