What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 9 of 16. The prices it paid implied about 6.8 wins, so it did +13.8 pts better than the market expected. That's only 16 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +9.4 pts. Information, not advice.How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+13.8 pts
Called / graded
9/16
Expected from price
6.8
Flagged volume
$2.01M
Sample size16 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±11.8 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$192k
16 graded bets in the order they resolved · 9 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Magic vs. Pistons at 21¢) and the edge is +9.4 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 18% · n=2
20–40¢
100% vs 32% · n=4
40–60¢
43% vs 46% · n=7
60–80¢
67% vs 65% · n=3
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$1.67M
Last 30 days −$304.7k · $103.57M volume · 105,242 trades · since May 04, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
