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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 7. The prices it paid implied about 3.8 wins, so it did -10.8 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 7 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-10.8 pts
Called / graded
3/7
Expected from price
3.8
Flagged volume
$1.22M
Sample size7 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.7 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$429k7 graded bets in the order they resolved · 3 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17? at 49¢) and the edge is -21.1 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
40% vs 51% · n=5
60–80¢
50% vs 62% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$962.0k
Last 30 days +$0 · $28.10M volume · 35,785 trades · since Feb 27, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$394.5k
Open P&L · 11 positions
−$561.5k
Closed-position win rate
50%
289 closed
Wallet age · markets
239d
298 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 6 | 3 | 3.3 | -5.5 pts |
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.4 | -43.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? | MED BUY No @ 59¢ | $206.5k | called |
 Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | MED BUY Yes @ 43¢ | $193.5k | missed |
 Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17? | MED BUY No @ 49¢ | $73.5k | called |
 Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? | MED BUY No @ 44¢ | $72.7k | excluded |
| Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 60¢ | $394.1k 3.2× usual |
missed |
| Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-18? | MED BUY Yes @ 47¢ | $124.4k | missed |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-01? | MED BUY Yes @ 63¢ | $126.0k | called |
| Will Fulham FC win on 2026-03-01? | LOW BUY No @ 52¢ | $21.2k | excluded |
| Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-02-28? | LOW BUY Yes @ 55¢ | $11.0k | missed |
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