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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 8 of 10. The prices it paid implied about 5.3 wins, so it did +26.8 pts better than the market expected. That's only 10 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +23.4 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+26.8 pts
Called / graded
8/10
Expected from price
5.3
Flagged volume
$2.41M
Sample size10 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±15.4 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$654k10 graded bets in the order they resolved · 8 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Capitals vs. Blue Jackets at 42¢) and the edge is +23.4 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
0% vs 39% · n=1
40–60¢
86% vs 50% · n=7
60–80¢
100% vs 71% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$11.35M
Last 30 days +$0 · $293.70M volume · 175,287 trades · since Jun 25, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$60.68M
Open P&L · 39 positions
−$1.46M
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
486d
2614 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 8 | 6 | 3.9 | +26.4 pts |
| Other | 2 | 2 | 1.4 | +28.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 | LOW BUY Under @ 68¢ | $27.9k | excluded |
 Knicks vs. Cavaliers | HIGH BUY Cavaliers @ 55¢ | $253.9k 3.0× usual |
missed |
 Wild vs. Avalanche | LOW BUY Wild @ 92¢ | $11.7k | excluded |
| Ducks vs. Oilers | LOW BUY Ducks @ 39¢ | $17.9k | missed |
| Capitals vs. Blue Jackets | MED BUY Capitals @ 42¢ | $62.0k | called |
| Penguins vs. Devils | LOW BUY Penguins @ 72¢ | $56.5k | excluded |
| Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines | MED BUY Michigan Wolverines @ 78¢ | $132.5k | excluded |
| Rockets vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 55¢ | $83.2k | excluded |
| Flames vs. Ducks | LOW BUY Flames @ 78¢ | $88.9k | excluded |
| Flames vs. Ducks | MED BUY Flames @ 44¢ | $120.3k | excluded |
| Flames vs. Ducks | LOW BUY Flames @ 43¢ | $25.0k | called |
| Ducks vs. Sharks | LOW BUY Sharks @ 50¢ | $14.3k | called |
| Celtics vs. Spurs | MED BUY Spurs @ 59¢ | $290.6k 3.4× usual |
called |
| Golden Knights vs. Sabres | LOW BUY Sabres @ 72¢ | $17.0k | excluded |
| Maple Leafs vs. Flames | LOW BUY Maple Leafs @ 74¢ | $33.9k | excluded |
| Rangers vs. Islanders | MED BUY Islanders @ 57¢ | $124.3k | excluded |
 Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) | HIGH BUY Seahawks @ 51¢ | $263.9k 3.1× usual |
called |
 Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? | MED BUY Yes @ 68¢ | $370.2k 4.3× usual |
called |
| Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) | MED BUY Seahawks @ 50¢ | $108.6k | called |
| Patriots vs. Broncos | LOW BUY Broncos @ 40¢ | $15.9k | excluded |
 Chicago State Cougars vs. Mercyhurst Lakers: O/U 129.5 | MED BUY Over @ 54¢ | $130.1k | excluded |
 Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? | MED BUY No @ 75¢ | $158.6k | called |
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