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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 15. The prices it paid implied about 8.4 wins, so it did -29.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 15 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-29.0 pts
Called / graded
4/15
Expected from price
8.4
Flagged volume
$2.09M
Sample size15 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±12.3 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$1.2M15 graded bets in the order they resolved · 4 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Sabres vs. Canadiens at 43¢) and the edge is -35.1 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
0% vs 36% · n=1
40–60¢
33% vs 48% · n=9
60–80¢
20% vs 73% · n=5
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$1.86M
Last 30 days +$0 · $10.08M volume · 483 trades · since Apr 19, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$1.67M
Open P&L · 215 positions
−$3.51M
Closed-position win rate
97%
181 closed
Wallet age · markets
188d
390 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 15 | 4 | 8.4 | -29.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? | LOW BUY Yes @ 51¢ | $28.0k | missed |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | LOW BUY Yes @ 68¢ | $23.0k | excluded |
 Spread: Spurs (-6.5) | LOW BUY Spurs @ 50¢ | $20.0k | missed |
 Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 40¢ | $50.0k | missed |
| Spread: Thunder (-6.5) | LOW BUY Thunder @ 50¢ | $30.0k | called |
 Wild vs. Avalanche | LOW BUY Avalanche @ 66¢ | $46.8k | called |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | LOW BUY Pistons @ 63¢ | $50.0k | missed |
| Sabres vs. Canadiens | LOW BUY Sabres @ 43¢ | $17.2k | called |
| Pistons vs. Cavaliers | MED BUY Pistons @ 41¢ | $40.0k | missed |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | LOW BUY Timberwolves @ 43¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| Pistons vs. Magic | LOW BUY Magic @ 43¢ | $20.0k | missed |
| Rockets vs. Lakers | LOW BUY Rockets @ 38¢ | $19.3k | excluded |
| Pistons vs. Magic | LOW BUY Pistons @ 58¢ | $46.1k | missed |
| Spurs vs. Trail Blazers | LOW BUY Trail Blazers @ 36¢ | $19.2k | missed |
| Spurs vs. Trail Blazers | HIGH BUY Spurs @ 57¢ | $389.7k 11.1× usual |
called |
| Magic vs. Pistons | HIGH BUY Pistons @ 80¢ | $305.9k 8.7× usual |
missed |
| Magic vs. Pistons | LOW BUY Pistons @ 79¢ | $98.8k 2.8× usual |
missed |
| Magic vs. Pistons | HIGH BUY Pistons @ 78¢ | $868.3k 24.8× usual |
missed |
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