Weekly report card
Week 2026-17
Apr 20, 00:00 EDT – Apr 26, 23:59 EDT · markets that resolved this week
Price-adjusted edge
-7.3 pts
Called
92/179
Expected from price
105.0
Std. error
±3.3
In week 2026-17, 179 graded flags resolved. The flagged side won 92 times; entry prices implied 105.0. Whales did no better than the price (-7.3 pts). One week is a small sample.
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 152 | 70 | 86.0 | -10.5 pts |
| Other | 27 | 22 | 19.0 | +11.1 pts |
Best calls (lowest implied odds that won)
Biggest misses
Every graded flag
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Hawks vs. Knicks | HIGH BUY Knicks @ 70¢ | $441.9k 10.6× usual |
missed |
| Spurs vs. Trail Blazers | HIGH BUY Spurs @ 57¢ | $389.7k 11.1× usual |
called |
| Magic vs. Pistons | HIGH BUY Pistons @ 78¢ | $380.3k 10.4× usual |
called |
| Magic vs. Pistons | MED BUY Pistons @ 78¢ | $307.9k 10.7× usual |
called |
| Celtics vs. 76ers | HIGH BUY Celtics @ 73¢ | $255.5k 4.0× usual |
called |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | MED BUY Nuggets @ 52¢ | $249.6k | missed |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | MED BUY No @ 82¢ | $236.1k | called |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | MED BUY Rockets @ 73¢ | $209.8k 5.7× usual |
missed |
 Athletics vs. Texas Rangers | MED BUY Athletics @ 47¢ | $190.9k | missed |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | MED BUY Rockets @ 56¢ | $190.1k 3.5× usual |
called |
| Spread: Spurs (-11.5) | MED BUY Trail Blazers @ 52¢ | $185.5k | called |
| Spurs vs. Trail Blazers | MED BUY Spurs @ 59¢ | $174.3k 7.7× usual |
called |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | MED BUY No @ 84¢ | $169.3k | called |
 Senators vs. Hurricanes | MED BUY Hurricanes @ 58¢ | $138.6k | called |
| Knicks vs. Hawks | HIGH BUY Hawks @ 49¢ | $129.9k 2.0× usual |
called |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | MED BUY Lakers @ 36¢ | $113.7k 3.4× usual |
called |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | MED BUY Rockets @ 56¢ | $110.7k | called |
| Spurs vs. Trail Blazers | MED BUY Trail Blazers @ 45¢ | $107.3k 2.3× usual |
missed |
| Magic vs. Pistons | MED BUY Pistons @ 78¢ | $103.9k | called |
| Celtics vs. 76ers | MED BUY Celtics @ 74¢ | $102.0k | called |
| Spread: Spurs (-11.5) | MED BUY Spurs @ 48¢ | $96.9k | missed |
| Rockets vs. Lakers | LOW BUY Rockets @ 67¢ | $87.0k 4.3× usual |
missed |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 84¢ | $84.5k | called |
| Celtics vs. 76ers | MED BUY 76ers @ 28¢ | $82.3k 2.4× usual |
missed |
| Spurs vs. Trail Blazers | MED BUY Spurs @ 56¢ | $80.8k | called |
| Celtics vs. 76ers | MED BUY 76ers @ 26¢ | $80.7k 2.3× usual |
missed |
| Senators vs. Hurricanes | LOW BUY Senators @ 42¢ | $79.7k | missed |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 86¢ | $78.6k | called |
| Spurs vs. Trail Blazers | MED BUY Spurs @ 54¢ | $73.7k 3.2× usual |
called |
| Senators vs. Hurricanes | LOW BUY Senators @ 43¢ | $70.8k | missed |
| Spread: Rockets (-4.5) | MED BUY Lakers @ 48¢ | $66.8k 2.3× usual |
called |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | LOW BUY Timberwolves @ 51¢ | $66.8k | called |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | LOW BUY Nuggets @ 51¢ | $62.1k 3.0× usual |
missed |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | MED BUY Rockets @ 77¢ | $59.8k 2.4× usual |
missed |
| Spread: Rockets (-4.5) | LOW BUY Rockets @ 51¢ | $59.6k | missed |
| Magic vs. Pistons | MED BUY Magic @ 22¢ | $58.1k | missed |
| Knicks vs. Hawks | LOW BUY Knicks @ 51¢ | $58.1k | missed |
| 76ers vs. Celtics | MED BUY Celtics @ 89¢ | $57.5k 2.6× usual |
missed |
| 76ers vs. Celtics | MED BUY Celtics @ 89¢ | $57.5k 2.6× usual |
missed |
| Spurs vs. Trail Blazers | MED BUY Trail Blazers @ 41¢ | $55.7k | missed |
 Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | MED SELL Yes @ 71¢ | $55.4k 2.6× usual |
missed |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | MED BUY No @ 79¢ | $53.2k 2.1× usual |
called |
| Knicks vs. Hawks | LOW BUY Hawks @ 49¢ | $51.4k | called |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | MED BUY Lakers @ 43¢ | $50.6k | missed |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | MED BUY No @ 90¢ | $48.0k 2.4× usual |
called |
| Hawks vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Knicks @ 69¢ | $47.8k | missed |
| Knicks vs. Hawks | MED BUY Knicks @ 51¢ | $47.3k 2.3× usual |
missed |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | LOW BUY Timberwolves @ 50¢ | $47.0k | called |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 83¢ | $46.5k | called |
| Celtics vs. 76ers | MED BUY Celtics @ 73¢ | $44.6k | called |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants | LOW BUY Los Angeles Dodgers @ 65¢ | $44.5k | missed |
| Spread: Spurs (-11.5) | LOW BUY Spurs @ 51¢ | $43.7k | missed |
| Knicks vs. Hawks | MED BUY Hawks @ 49¢ | $43.0k 2.1× usual |
called |
| Spread: Rockets (-4.5) | LOW BUY Rockets @ 52¢ | $43.0k | missed |
| Hawks vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Knicks @ 70¢ | $41.2k | missed |
| Ducks vs. Oilers | LOW BUY Oilers @ 64¢ | $39.4k | called |
| Ducks vs. Oilers | MED BUY Oilers @ 60¢ | $38.4k | called |
| Trail Blazers vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 85¢ | $37.6k | missed |
 Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage | LOW BUY Team Spirit @ 60¢ | $35.1k | called |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | MED BUY Rockets @ 75¢ | $33.6k | missed |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | MED BUY Timberwolves @ 49¢ | $32.9k | called |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 93¢ | $32.4k 2.3× usual |
called |
| Spurs vs. Trail Blazers | MED BUY Spurs @ 57¢ | $32.1k | called |
| Trail Blazers vs. Spurs | MED BUY Spurs @ 86¢ | $31.6k | missed |
| Magic vs. Pistons | LOW BUY Pistons @ 79¢ | $31.2k 2.0× usual |
called |
| Spurs vs. Trail Blazers | LOW BUY Trail Blazers @ 46¢ | $31.2k | missed |
| Spurs vs. Trail Blazers | LOW BUY Spurs @ 60¢ | $30.6k | called |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | LOW BUY Rockets @ 74¢ | $29.7k | missed |
| Senators vs. Hurricanes | LOW BUY Hurricanes @ 59¢ | $29.3k | called |
| Spurs vs. Trail Blazers | LOW BUY Trail Blazers @ 44¢ | $29.2k | missed |
| Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage | LOW BUY Xtreme Gaming @ 53¢ | $29.2k | missed |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 83¢ | $29.1k | called |
| Rockets vs. Lakers | LOW BUY Rockets @ 64¢ | $28.9k | missed |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | LOW BUY Timberwolves @ 46¢ | $28.5k | called |
| Spurs vs. Trail Blazers | LOW BUY Spurs @ 60¢ | $27.1k | called |
| Hawks vs. Knicks | MED BUY Hawks @ 31¢ | $26.7k | called |
| Spurs vs. Trail Blazers | MED BUY Trail Blazers @ 34¢ | $26.6k | missed |
| 76ers vs. Celtics | MED SELL Celtics @ 88¢ | $26.4k | called |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | LOW BUY Lakers @ 44¢ | $25.7k | missed |
| Hawks vs. Knicks | LOW SELL Hawks @ 29¢ | $25.7k | missed |
| Trail Blazers vs. Spurs | MED SELL Spurs @ 84¢ | $25.2k | called |
| Knicks vs. Hawks | LOW BUY Knicks @ 52¢ | $25.2k | missed |
| 76ers vs. Celtics | LOW BUY Celtics @ 87¢ | $25.1k | missed |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | LOW BUY Rockets @ 57¢ | $25.0k | called |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 87¢ | $24.3k | called |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | LOW BUY Lakers @ 44¢ | $24.1k | missed |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | LOW BUY Rockets @ 56¢ | $24.1k | called |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | LOW BUY Nuggets @ 55¢ | $24.1k | missed |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 87¢ | $23.8k | called |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 88¢ | $23.4k | called |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 88¢ | $23.4k | called |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 75¢ | $22.2k | called |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | LOW BUY Rockets @ 74¢ | $21.9k | missed |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | LOW BUY Rockets @ 62¢ | $21.2k | called |
| Timberwolves vs. Nuggets | LOW BUY Nuggets @ 73¢ | $20.8k | missed |
| Spread: Spurs (-11.5) | LOW BUY Trail Blazers @ 52¢ | $20.2k | called |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? | LOW BUY No @ 73¢ | $20.0k | missed |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 17¢ | $20.0k | missed |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | LOW BUY No @ 77¢ | $19.5k | missed |
 Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-21? | LOW BUY Yes @ 77¢ | $19.4k | called |
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