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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.8 wins, so it did +17.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+17.0 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.8
Flagged volume
$123.4k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±37.6 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$47.7k
Last 30 days +$0 · $2.72M volume · 1,526 trades · since Nov 21, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$27.7k
Open P&L · 5 positions
−$22.9k
Closed-position win rate
49%
69 closed
Wallet age · markets
337d
66 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | +17.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? | LOW BUY No @ 98.6¢ | $18.8k | excluded |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 83¢ | $46.5k | called |
 US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $26.4k | excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 85¢ | $31.7k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xd1a414…