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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 8. The prices it paid implied about 4.0 wins, so it did -12.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 8 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-12.5 pts
Called / graded
3/8
Expected from price
4.0
Flagged volume
$1.23M
Sample size8 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±17.6 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$12k8 graded bets in the order they resolved · 3 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Knicks vs. Hawks at 49¢) and the edge is -21.6 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
38% vs 50% · n=8
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$98.3k
Last 30 days +$0 · $32.25M volume · 18,787 trades · since Jun 28, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 474 closed
+$3.44M
Open P&L · 85 positions
−$3.32M
Closed-position win rate
60%
474 closed
Wallet age · markets
848d
554 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 8 | 3 | 4.0 | -12.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Thunder vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 54¢ | $43.8k | excluded |
 UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) | MED BUY Khamzat Chimaev @ 80¢ | $240.0k 5.5× usual |
excluded |
| Spurs vs. Timberwolves | MED BUY Spurs @ 66¢ | $101.5k 2.3× usual |
excluded |
| UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims) | LOW BUY Mateusz Rebecki @ 41¢ | $33.6k | missed |
| Lakers vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Lakers @ 11¢ | $10.9k | excluded |
| Knicks vs. 76ers | LOW BUY 76ers @ 51¢ | $43.6k | missed |
 St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres | MED BUY San Diego Padres @ 60¢ | $101.8k 2.3× usual |
excluded |
| Knicks vs. 76ers | LOW BUY 76ers @ 50¢ | $93.5k 2.1× usual |
missed |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | MED BUY Rockets @ 61¢ | $122.0k 2.8× usual |
excluded |
| Knicks vs. Hawks | LOW BUY Hawks @ 49¢ | $51.4k | called |
| Spurs vs. Trail Blazers | LOW BUY Spurs @ 51¢ | $14.2k | called |
| Spread: Spurs (-11.5) | LOW BUY Spurs @ 40¢ | $39.8k | excluded |
| Warriors vs. Clippers | MED BUY Warriors @ 34¢ | $48.3k | excluded |
| Spread: Celtics (-9.5) | LOW BUY Raptors @ 52¢ | $54.4k | excluded |
 Will Italy win on 2026-03-31? | LOW BUY No @ 34¢ | $13.1k | excluded |
| Spread: Nuggets (-11.5) | MED BUY Nuggets @ 51¢ | $125.6k 2.9× usual |
called |
 Will Germany win on 2026-03-27? | LOW BUY No @ 53¢ | $18.5k | missed |
 Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-21? | LOW SELL No @ 47¢ | $33.1k | excluded |
| Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-21? | LOW BUY No @ 47¢ | $33.4k | called |
 Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-17? | LOW BUY No @ 55¢ | $12.2k | missed |
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