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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 5 of 8. The prices it paid implied about 4.7 wins, so it did +3.6 pts better than the market expected. That's only 8 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: -2.9 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+3.6 pts
Called / graded
5/8
Expected from price
4.7
Flagged volume
$728.9k
Sample size8 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±16.9 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$15k8 graded bets in the order they resolved · 5 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Spread: Thunder (-11.5) at 51¢) and the edge is -2.9 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
0% vs 38% · n=1
40–60¢
67% vs 53% · n=3
60–80¢
75% vs 69% · n=4
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$274.0k
Last 30 days −$4,960 · $15.02M volume · 7,085 trades · since Jan 16, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 483 closed
−$269.0k
Open P&L · 1 positions
−$4,960
Closed-position win rate
57%
483 closed
Wallet age · markets
281d
473 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 8 | 5 | 4.7 | +3.6 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | MED SELL Yes @ 62¢ | $33.0k | missed |
 Spurs vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Knicks @ 55¢ | $10.4k | missed |
| 76ers vs. Celtics | LOW BUY Celtics @ 61¢ | $30.5k | excluded |
| Spread: Celtics (-8.5) | LOW BUY 76ers @ 66¢ | $46.2k | excluded |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | LOW BUY Nuggets @ 73¢ | $51.1k | excluded |
| Spread: Thunder (-11.5) | LOW BUY Suns @ 51¢ | $34.7k | called |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | LOW BUY Nuggets @ 53¢ | $20.6k | excluded |
| Spread: Spurs (-11.5) | LOW BUY Trail Blazers @ 52¢ | $20.2k | called |
| Timberwolves vs. Nuggets | LOW BUY Timberwolves @ 56¢ | $13.3k | excluded |
| Timberwolves vs. Nuggets | LOW BUY Nuggets @ 73¢ | $43.1k | excluded |
| Hawks vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Knicks @ 70¢ | $41.2k | missed |
| Hawks vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Knicks @ 69¢ | $33.9k | excluded |
| Cavaliers vs. Lakers | LOW BUY Lakers @ 56¢ | $16.4k | excluded |
 Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-17? | MED BUY No @ 53¢ | $29.7k | excluded |
 Counter-Strike: G2 vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs | LOW BUY MOUZ @ 62¢ | $50.0k | called |
| Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B | LOW BUY Team Falcons @ 57¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
| Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B | LOW BUY Vitality @ 76¢ | $30.0k | called |
 Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? | MED SELL Yes @ 68¢ | $79.6k 2.6× usual |
missed |
| Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 68¢ | $80.0k 2.6× usual |
called |
 Rams vs. Seahawks | LOW BUY Seahawks @ 56¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| Patriots vs. Broncos | LOW BUY Patriots @ 66¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
| Patriots vs. Broncos | LOW BUY Patriots @ 67¢ | $15.0k | called |
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