Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
+$31
Return on staked
+3.8%
Bets
5/8 won
Edge vs price
+3.6 pts ±16.9
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Jan 24, 16:17 ESTJun 10, 16:20 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | 38¢ | missed | 135d ago |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | 55¢ | missed | 138d ago |
| Spread: Thunder (-11.5) | 51¢ | called | 179d ago |
| Spread: Spurs (-11.5) | 52¢ | called | 185d ago |
| Hawks vs. Knicks | 70¢ | missed | 186d ago |
| Counter-Strike: G2 vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs | 62¢ | called | 260d ago |
| Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B | 76¢ | called | 263d ago |
| Patriots vs. Broncos | 67¢ | called | 272d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.