sameday1

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 2.5 wins, so it did +17.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026?+$332No · avg 90¢ → 98.8¢ · $3,751 Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?−$3,319Yes · avg 71¢ → 14¢ · $852

Price-adjusted edge

+17.0 pts

Called / graded

3/3

Expected from price

2.5

Flagged volume

$250.7k

Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±21.5 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$74.0k

Last 30 days −$620 · $4.90M volume · 2,909 trades · since Apr 10, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$109.6k

Open P&L · 17 positions

−$75.0k

Closed-position win rate

65%

55 closed

Wallet age · markets

197d

72 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Other	2	2	1.7	+14.0 pts
Economy	1	1	0.8	+23.0 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 77¢	$19.4k	77%	107d ago	called
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 88¢	$94.5k	88%	107d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 84¢	$84.5k	84%	188d ago	called
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?	LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢	$52.2k	0%	192d ago	excluded

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?called

BUY Yes @ 77¢$19.4k

LOW sameday1 · 107d ago

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?called

BUY No @ 88¢$94.5k

LOW sameday1 · 107d ago

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?called

BUY No @ 84¢$84.5k

LOW sameday1 · 188d ago

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?excluded

SELL No @ 99.8¢$52.2k

LOW sameday1 · 192d ago

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