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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.7 wins, so it did +13.8 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+13.8 pts
Called / graded
2/2
Expected from price
1.7
Flagged volume
$50.3k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±23.2 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$40.6k
Last 30 days +$0 · $471.2k volume · 749 trades · since Apr 14, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$41.5k
Open P&L · 10 positions
−$932
Closed-position win rate
78%
46 closed
Wallet age · markets
193d
55 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 2 | 2 | 1.7 | +13.8 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 96.9¢ | $16.6k | called |
 Trump kiss by May 31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $11.5k | excluded |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 75¢ | $22.2k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x51ff0f…