← Wallets
−$14.4kYes · avg 29¢ → 8.5¢ · $5,889
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 6. The prices it paid implied about 3.8 wins, so it did -12.8 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 6 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-12.8 pts
Called / graded
3/6
Expected from price
3.8
Flagged volume
$303.8k
Sample size6 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±17.8 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$23k6 graded bets in the order they resolved · 3 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? at 69¢) and the edge is -21.5 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
0% vs 33% · n=1
40–60¢
0% vs 49% · n=2
60–80¢
100% vs 69% · n=1
80–100¢
100% vs 88% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$386.7k
Last 30 days −$573 · $24.73M volume · 17,101 trades · since Oct 19, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$843.1k
Open P&L · 68 positions
−$417.1k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
370d
1241 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 4 | 2 | 2.5 | -13.4 pts |
| Sports | 2 | 1 | 1.2 | -11.5 pts |
History
Share this record
<a href="https://whalegrader.com/wallet/0x78ad03d27582cd1b5255d364ff8f093b6cf745cc"><img src="https://whalegrader.com/badge/wallet/0x78ad03d27582cd1b5255d364ff8f093b6cf745cc.svg" alt="WhaleGrader record"></a>
JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x78ad03…