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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 12 of 26. The prices it paid implied about 14.7 wins, so it did -10.2 pts worse than the market expected. That's no clear edge yet (-10.2 pts over 26 bets). Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-10.2 pts
Called / graded
12/26
Expected from price
14.7
Flagged volume
$3.34M
Sample size26 graded
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±9.5 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$323k26 graded bets in the order they resolved · 12 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Spread: Raptors (-10.5) at 50¢) and the edge is -12.6 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
41% vs 51% · n=17
60–80¢
50% vs 65% · n=8
80–100¢
100% vs 82% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$309.2k
Last 30 days −$262.6k · $65.96M volume · 37,647 trades · since Mar 19, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$15.62M
Open P&L · 276 positions
−$8.82M
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
219d
993 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 26 | 12 | 14.7 | -10.2 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Spread: Thunder (-8.5) | MED BUY Nuggets @ 51¢ | $54.8k | missed |
| Spread: Raptors (-10.5) | LOW BUY Raptors @ 50¢ | $29.4k | called |
| Pacers vs. Pelicans | LOW BUY Pelicans @ 43¢ | $13.5k | missed |
| Spread: Wizards (-4.5) | MED BUY Bucks @ 50¢ | $62.4k | missed |
| Spread: Clippers (-5.5) | LOW BUY Kings @ 52¢ | $24.2k | missed |
 Lions vs. Panthers | MED BUY Lions @ 66¢ | $119.4k 2.6× usual |
missed |
| Chiefs vs. Raiders | LOW BUY Chiefs @ 68¢ | $34.0k | called |
| Cowboys vs. Texans | HIGH BUY Texans @ 58¢ | $297.5k 6.5× usual |
excluded |
| Broncos vs. 49ers | LOW BUY 49ers @ 57¢ | $14.7k | called |
| Colts vs. Commanders | LOW BUY Colts @ 64¢ | $38.3k | called |
| Colts vs. Commanders | LOW BUY Colts @ 64¢ | $12.0k | called |
| Colts vs. Commanders | LOW BUY Colts @ 63¢ | $14.0k | called |
 Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox | LOW BUY Boston Red Sox @ 51¢ | $36.5k | called |
| Spread: Spurs (-6.5) | MED BUY Spurs @ 50¢ | $112.5k 2.5× usual |
missed |
 Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes | MED BUY Golden Knights @ 41¢ | $30.8k | excluded |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres | MED BUY San Diego Padres @ 49¢ | $143.9k 3.1× usual |
excluded |
| Spurs vs. Timberwolves | LOW BUY Spurs @ 68¢ | $35.1k | excluded |
| Pistons vs. Cavaliers | MED BUY Cavaliers @ 61¢ | $225.2k 4.9× usual |
excluded |
| Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves | LOW BUY Atlanta Braves @ 61¢ | $20.0k | missed |
| Spread: Pistons (-4.5) | MED BUY Cavaliers @ 52¢ | $106.1k 2.3× usual |
called |
| Sabres vs. Canadiens | LOW BUY Canadiens @ 57¢ | $41.5k | missed |
| Avalanche vs. Wild | MED BUY Avalanche @ 56¢ | $120.9k 2.6× usual |
called |
| Canadiens vs. Lightning | LOW BUY Canadiens @ 40¢ | $44.3k | excluded |
| Rockets vs. Lakers | MED BUY Lakers @ 60¢ | $168.4k 3.7× usual |
excluded |
| Timberwolves vs. Nuggets | MED BUY Nuggets @ 82¢ | $132.7k 2.9× usual |
called |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | LOW BUY Rockets @ 60¢ | $58.6k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Trail Blazers | MED BUY Trail Blazers @ 31¢ | $72.2k | excluded |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | LOW BUY Timberwolves @ 50¢ | $47.0k | called |
| Celtics vs. 76ers | HIGH BUY Celtics @ 77¢ | $331.1k 7.2× usual |
excluded |
| Spurs vs. Trail Blazers | MED BUY Trail Blazers @ 45¢ | $107.3k 2.3× usual |
missed |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants | LOW BUY Los Angeles Dodgers @ 65¢ | $44.5k | missed |
| Hawks vs. Knicks | MED BUY Hawks @ 31¢ | $54.5k | excluded |
| Senators vs. Hurricanes | LOW BUY Senators @ 42¢ | $79.7k | missed |
| Timberwolves vs. Nuggets | LOW BUY Nuggets @ 73¢ | $20.8k | missed |
| Warriors vs. Clippers | MED BUY Warriors @ 33¢ | $79.1k | excluded |
| Hornets vs. Celtics | MED BUY Celtics @ 64¢ | $183.5k 4.0× usual |
excluded |
| Timberwolves vs. Pacers: O/U 233.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 52¢ | $40.7k | excluded |
| Pistons vs. Timberwolves | LOW BUY Timberwolves @ 47¢ | $18.6k | missed |
| Pistons vs. Timberwolves | LOW BUY Timberwolves @ 47¢ | $15.1k | missed |
 Michigan State Spartans vs. Connecticut Huskies | LOW BUY Michigan State Spartans @ 44¢ | $16.3k | excluded |
| Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes | MED BUY Iowa Hawkeyes @ 46¢ | $116.0k 2.5× usual |
excluded |
| Wild vs. Panthers | LOW BUY Wild @ 60¢ | $18.0k | excluded |
| Wild vs. Panthers | LOW BUY Wild @ 59¢ | $19.3k | called |
| Missouri Tigers vs. Miami Hurricanes | MED BUY Miami Hurricanes @ 53¢ | $88.8k | excluded |
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