Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$548
Return on staked
-21.1%
Bets
12/26 won
Edge vs price
-10.2 pts ±9.5
Consistency check. Older half of bets: -18.2 pts (5/13). Newer half: -2.2 pts (7/13).
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Mar 26, 14:23 EDTOct 22, 12:33 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Thunder (-8.5) | 51¢ | missed | 1d ago |
| Spread: Raptors (-10.5) | 50¢ | called | 2d ago |
| Pacers vs. Pelicans | 43¢ | missed | 2d ago |
| Spread: Wizards (-4.5) | 50¢ | missed | 2d ago |
| Spread: Clippers (-5.5) | 52¢ | missed | 2d ago |
| Lions vs. Panthers | 66¢ | missed | 19d ago |
| Chiefs vs. Raiders | 68¢ | called | 19d ago |
| Broncos vs. 49ers | 57¢ | called | 21d ago |
| Colts vs. Commanders | 64¢ | called | 22d ago |
| Colts vs. Commanders | 64¢ | called | 24d ago |
| Colts vs. Commanders | 63¢ | called | 25d ago |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox | 51¢ | called | 97d ago |
| Spread: Spurs (-6.5) | 50¢ | missed | 140d ago |
| Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves | 61¢ | missed | 163d ago |
| Spread: Pistons (-4.5) | 52¢ | called | 163d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.