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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 6 of 16. The prices it paid implied about 6.2 wins, so it did -1.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 16 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-1.0 pts
Called / graded
6/16
Expected from price
6.2
Flagged volume
$1.46M
Sample size16 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±11.6 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$273k16 graded bets in the order they resolved · 6 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Cavaliers vs. Bucks at 25¢) and the edge is -6.1 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 7% · n=1
20–40¢
29% vs 29% · n=7
40–60¢
43% vs 47% · n=7
60–80¢
100% vs 76% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$4.04M
Last 30 days +$0 · $248.47M volume · 290,673 trades · since May 29, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$48.08M
Open P&L · 500 positions
−$41.65M
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
512d
1589 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 3 | 1 | 0.9 | +5.0 pts |
| Sports | 13 | 5 | 5.3 | -2.4 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Celtics vs. 76ers | MED BUY 76ers @ 26¢ | $80.7k 2.3× usual |
missed |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | LOW BUY Timberwolves @ 46¢ | $28.5k | called |
| Trail Blazers vs. Suns | MED BUY Trail Blazers @ 42¢ | $151.5k 4.2× usual |
excluded |
 Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | LOW BUY No @ 7¢ | $10.7k | missed |
| Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | MED BUY No @ 24¢ | $72.7k 2.0× usual |
missed |
 Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? | LOW BUY No @ 54¢ | $11.1k | called |
| Magic vs. Hawks | LOW BUY Magic @ 41¢ | $19.3k | missed |
 Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-03? | MED BUY No @ 33¢ | $111.7k 3.1× usual |
excluded |
| Clippers vs. Warriors | LOW BUY Warriors @ 47¢ | $32.3k | missed |
| Rockets vs. Heat | LOW BUY Heat @ 44¢ | $72.7k 2.0× usual |
called |
| Heat vs. 76ers | LOW BUY Heat @ 45¢ | $17.0k | excluded |
| Spread: Hornets (-12.5) | LOW BUY Pacers @ 50¢ | $12.9k | excluded |
| Rockets vs. Magic | MED BUY Magic @ 44¢ | $124.1k 3.5× usual |
missed |
| Lakers vs. Suns | MED BUY Suns @ 34¢ | $35.7k | called |
 Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-25? | LOW SELL Yes @ 55¢ | $19.8k | excluded |
| Thunder vs. Pistons | LOW SELL Thunder @ 24¢ | $12.5k | called |
| Cavaliers vs. Bucks | LOW BUY Bucks @ 25¢ | $16.3k | called |
| Thunder vs. Raptors | MED BUY Thunder @ 48¢ | $140.1k 3.9× usual |
excluded |
| 76ers vs. Pacers | MED BUY Pacers @ 19¢ | $93.8k 2.6× usual |
excluded |
| Timberwolves vs. Trail Blazers | MED BUY Trail Blazers @ 31¢ | $53.9k | missed |
| Warriors vs. Pelicans | LOW BUY Warriors @ 52¢ | $67.7k | missed |
| Spurs vs. Pistons | MED BUY Pistons @ 53¢ | $175.4k 4.9× usual |
excluded |
| Spurs vs. Warriors | MED BUY Warriors @ 32¢ | $34.7k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Warriors | MED BUY Warriors @ 34¢ | $48.9k | missed |
 Patriots vs. Broncos | LOW BUY Broncos @ 31¢ | $20.2k | missed |
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