Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$144
Return on staked
-9.0%
Bets
6/16 won
Edge vs price
-1.0 pts ±11.6
Consistency check. Older half of bets: -3.4 pts (3/8). Newer half: +1.4 pts (3/8).
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Jan 20, 11:37 ESTApr 24, 17:03 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Celtics vs. 76ers | 26¢ | missed | 183d ago |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | 46¢ | called | 184d ago |
| Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | 7¢ | missed | 195d ago |
| Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | 24¢ | missed | 195d ago |
| Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? | 54¢ | called | 195d ago |
| Magic vs. Hawks | 41¢ | missed | 222d ago |
| Clippers vs. Warriors | 47¢ | missed | 236d ago |
| Rockets vs. Heat | 44¢ | called | 238d ago |
| Rockets vs. Magic | 44¢ | missed | 240d ago |
| Lakers vs. Suns | 34¢ | called | 240d ago |
| Thunder vs. Pistons | 76¢ | called | 241d ago |
| Cavaliers vs. Bucks | 25¢ | called | 241d ago |
| Timberwolves vs. Trail Blazers | 31¢ | missed | 242d ago |
| Warriors vs. Pelicans | 52¢ | missed | 242d ago |
| Spurs vs. Warriors | 34¢ | missed | 255d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.