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What this means. A wallet put $72.7k on No, at a price that gave it a 24% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 16 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$72.7k
BUY No @ 24¢ · 301,238 shares in 5 fills
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog side5 fills in 1h2× this wallet's usual betOther
What happened
Wallet DrPufferfish took No (buy) for $72.7k at an average 24¢. At that price the market implied a 24% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $72.7k+1
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
5 fills within 1h+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 24¢ means
24%chance the market gave
+314American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 24¢
- Implied odds
- 24.1%
- Size
- $72.7k
- Placed
- Apr 12, 17:50 EDT
- Market close
- Apr 12, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- DrPufferfish
- Tx
- 0x0bfb9a1b…
This wallet's graded record
6/16-1.0 pts
expected 6.2 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -24 ptsNo price · entry 24¢ · resolved Yes
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | MED SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $98.5k | excluded |
| Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $49.5k 3.6× usual |
excluded |
| Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $39.7k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $17.9k | excluded |
| Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $14.2k | excluded |
| Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $87.3k 5.8× usual |
excluded |