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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 0.8 wins, so it did +11.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+11.0 pts
Called / graded
1/2
Expected from price
0.8
Flagged volume
$334.9k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±31.1 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$1.72M
Last 30 days +$0 · $17.45M volume · 3,650 trades · since Mar 21, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$1.61M
Open P&L · 3 positions
−$109.2k
Closed-position win rate
38%
91 closed
Wallet age · markets
217d
93 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 2 | 1 | 0.8 | +11.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| MED SELL 9z @ 99.9¢ | $109.4k 2.9× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW BUY 9z @ 39¢ | $19.2k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY South America Rejects @ 18¢ | $13.4k | missed | |
| LOW SELL Xtreme Gaming @ 51¢ | $36.4k | called | |
| LOW SELL South America Rejects @ 48¢ | $40.4k | missed | |
| LOW BUY Xtreme Gaming @ 56¢ | $40.6k | missed | |
| LOW BUY South America Rejects @ 49¢ | $40.3k | called | |
| LOW BUY Team Spirit @ 60¢ | $35.1k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x1a5c09…