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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 3.0 wins, so it did +1.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: -11.0 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+1.0 pts
Called / graded
3/5
Expected from price
3.0
Flagged volume
$983.8k
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±21.6 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$7k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 3 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance at 51¢) and the edge is -11.0 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
67% vs 52% · n=3
60–80¢
50% vs 70% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$126.0k
Last 30 days +$50.4k · $38.75M volume · 28,298 trades · since Jan 06, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$6.09M
Open P&L · 500 positions
−$4.11M
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
291d
2108 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 5 | 3 | 3.0 | +1.0 pts |
History
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xc44f43…